404 
fxus63 kict 231146 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
546 am CST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Aviation...12z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 
main concern: dense fog (vlifr) in central/south central Kansas this 
am. Decoupled moist boundary layer has led to widespread dense fog 
in central Kansas...with areas of dense fog in S-central Kansas somewhat 
inhibited there by band of cirrus. These conditions should persist 
through about 16z...affecting rsl/sln/hut/ict...before improving rapidly. 
MVFR visibilities expected at cnu this am. Otherwise storm system coming 
out of the central rockies across Kansas later today into tonight...will 
bring some light rain to central Kansas tonight. MVFR ceilings expected 
areawide behind cold front tonight...and at cnu ahead of cold 
front tonight. 


Jmc 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 327 am CST Monday Nov 23 2009/ 


Synopsis... 
all of central & most of SC Kansas are definitely in a fog early this morning 
with widespread visibilities <=1/4sm along & west of I-135. The +fg spread S over 
SC Kansas ~1am CST as a weak 850-mb trough approaching SC Kansas scoured out the 
~4,500ft stratocu that had resided over much of this area which thereby 
enabled radiational cooling to hit full throttle. The +fg should linger 
over central Kansas a bit longer this morning where isentropic ascent through the 
295k surface is a little stronger & boundary layer flow assumes more Ely 
component in response to low pressure center developing over Texas/OK 
panhandles. 


Discussion... 


This morning: 
no doubt immediate focus is on all facets of +fg shrouding central & SC Kansas 
this morning. Current expiration time of +fg advisory of 10am for areas 
generally along & west of I-135 looks very good as does areal extent so no 
changes planned in this realm of forecast. 


This afternoon: 
a negatively-tilted middle-upper trough punching southeast from the northern rockies should 
continue to strengthen...with middle-level cyclogenesis increasing markedly 
over western Kansas. In concert with lower-deck cohort strengthening over SW Kansas as 
afternoon progresses the increasing southerly lower-deck flow should boost maxes 
to ~60f in SC & southeast Kansas. However...a surface cold front developing over western Kansas 
will surge southeast & possibly knock on doors along western corridor of the kict 
County Warning Area late this afternoon. Such a scenario dictates keeping maxes ~50f in 
northwest sector where & when -shra are possible. 


Tonight: 
with the afore-mentioned middle-upper low continuing to strengthen as it 
drifts in Ely manner over Kansas...the surface-850mb cold front will surge east/southeast 
across SC Kansas. While the surface-850mb fuel isn't of a "high octane variant" 
it'll be more than sufficient to generate rain showers/thunderstorms and rain over most of kict 
country...especially from central-southeast Kansas. The decelerating middle-upper low will 
allow it's associated diffluence to linger over most of eastern Kansas longer. 
As such chances for embedded thunderstorms and rain are increasing for nearly all of eastern 
Kansas. Have therefore increased areal thunderstorms and rain coverage to "sct"...especially 
along NE corridor where moderate rain showers now assigned along with increased 
quantitative precipitation forecast. It now appears that the lower airmass will be of sufficient warmth to 
keep all precipitation over central Kansas in liquid form. 


Tuesday & Tuesday ngt: 
the behavior of this system will require close monitoring...especially 
it's eastward progress. The NAM is noticeably slower than it's colleagues by 
positioning the middle-upper low over the Kansas/MO border early Tuesday evening 
whereas the GFS...European model (ecmwf) & UKMET want to lift the feature NE to near the 
MO/Iowa border. Regardless...most of kict country should get dry-slotted 
by mid-day. As such have limited mention of -ra to NE corridor where no 
doubt closer to wrap-around effects. 


Wednesday-Fri: 
nice weather slated for the neighborhood over the Holiday period. A 2nd 
middle-upper low will strengthen considerably Wednesday & Wednesday night as it surges southeast 
over the Upper/Middle MS valley. The feature should induce a secondary cold 
front southeast across the region Wednesday evening thereby resulting in a somewhat 
chilly Thanksgiving morning. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 61 40 45 33 / 20 40 10 0 
Hutchinson 58 41 44 32 / 20 50 20 0 
Newton 60 41 45 33 / 20 50 20 0 
Eldorado 61 41 46 33 / 10 40 20 0 
Winfield-kwld 62 39 45 33 / 10 30 0 0 
Russell 52 40 45 30 / 30 60 30 0 
Great Bend 54 39 44 30 / 30 50 20 0 
Salina 56 43 45 32 / 30 60 30 0 
McPherson 57 42 45 32 / 20 50 30 0 
Coffeyville 63 45 48 34 / 0 40 20 0 
Chanute 62 45 49 34 / 10 50 30 10 
Iola 62 46 49 35 / 10 60 30 10 
Parsons-kppf 62 45 48 34 / 0 50 20 0 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
dense fog advisory until 10 am CST this morning for ksz032-033- 
047>051-067-068-082-083-091-092. 


&& 


$$