130 
fxus61 Kiln 301043 
afdiln 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio 
643 am EDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Synopsis... 
lingering moisture and instability will provide the ingredients 
foe isolated thunderstorms this afternoon near the Ohio River. High 
pressure will then build into the region for the Holiday weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
cold front has moved through the area and is now located from near eri- 
pkb-hts. Models agree in lingering surface and 800 mb convergence near the 
Ohio River along with higher relative humidity this afternoon. Added 20 probability of precipitation along the 
extreme southern counties of the forecast area. 


Temperatures got really warm yesterday. Although we had frontal passage overnight 
and some of the area got precipitation...feel that the area is getting 
pretty dry. Leaned towards the warmer mav guidance for highs 
today. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/... 
surface high and middle level ridge is forecast to build east across the 
area through Sunday. Expect mostly sunny/mostly clear conditions 
through the period. GFS drives a cool dry airmass into the region 
Saturday night. Thought this was a little overdone...so went with 
a GFS/NGM split on the min temperatures and dewpoints. 


Heights will begin to rise sun into Monday and should see warming 
temperatures. Leaned towards the Warner mav guidance for highs sun 
and Monday. Went a blend for the Sun night lows. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
models continue to be in good agreement on the large scale pattern 
through early next week...with dominant upper ridge building into 
the eastern U.S. And keeping its hold over the region through 
midweek. This will keep temperatures well above average through the 
period while conditions remain dry. Went above guidance for temperatures 
toward Tuesday and Wednesday as surface high shifts to the east...bringing 
in warm southwesterly flow. Increasing 850 mb temperatures are supportive 
of highs in the lower 90s across the southwestern half of the County Warning Area 
by Tuesday. Next system of interest enters the picture late in the 
extended as the upper ridge flattens and a cold front moves into 
the Great Lakes. Sided with the slower European model (ecmwf) keeping the frontal 
boundary to the north of the County Warning Area through Thursday...so did not 
introduce probability of precipitation at this time. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
high pressure will provide mainly clear skies with a few fair weather 
cumulus early this morning. Low level stratus north and NE of kcmh will 
lift to a SC deck that quickly breaks up with the Rising Sun. 
Northeast winds will turn east today...otherwise little to change 
in the forecast or in current tafs. 


Outlook...no significant weather is expected. 


&& 


Iln watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
In...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...sites 
near term...sites 
short term...sites 
long term...Ryan 
aviation...franks