083 
fxus63 klmk 061855 
afdlmk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky 
255 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2008 


Short term (tonight and tomorrow)... 


Surface high pressure over the plains states will move east to the 
Midwest by tomorrow. Aloft a short/WV will pass to our north bringing 
a few-scattered clouds to the forecast area tonight and early tomorrow 
especially across the north. A dry forecast period in store in 
the short term. The only concern will be fog tomorrow morning. 
Thinking is that the southern half of the forecast area and the Bluegrass 
will see the lowest visibilities in the 1 to 3 mile range...possibly 
lower. Feel that this area will be most conducive to fog 
development farther removed from the short/WV to the north. GFS and Eta model 
both hinting at low dewpt depressions...calm winds...and limited 
cloud cover to aid in fog formation. The Eta model is the most 
aggressive with the visibility reductions. 


As for temperatures...lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to around 60. 
Highs tomorrow will range from the low to middle 80s...typical for 
this time of year. 


Long term (sunday night through saturday)... 


High pressure Sunday night will give way to an advancing cold front 
early in the new work week. Models are in good agreement bringing 
the front across the lmk County warning forecast area Tuesday morning. Moisture will not be 
particularly plentiful with this system...with the best chance of 
shower and thunderstorm activity in a corridor right along the front 
itself late Monday night into early Tuesday. 


High pressure returns behind the front Tuesday night and Ushers in 
more dry weather. The European model (ecmwf) wants to bring scattered showers into 
the region Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with a weak 
surface trough. Moisture again looks quite shallow and other models 
keep US dry so will continue the dry forecast for middle-week at this 
time. 


Thursday another cold front will approach from the northwest while 
high pressure moving off the East Coast will pump Atlantic and some 
Gulf moisture northward into the southeast United States. Models are 
in good agreement with scattered convection over the area and will 
have a small pop in the forecast. Thursday night the front advances 
eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys with scattered 
showers...tapering off on Friday. 


It should be noted that confidence is relatively low in the later 
periods of this forecast pending the future behavior of Hurricane 
Ike. Some models take the storm west across the Gulf into south 
Texas while others bring it north across the Gulf Coast. 


&& 


Aviation (18z tafs)... 


Stratus deck from this morning is finally showing significant decay 
across the taf sites. Lex has gone VFR this afternoon with only a 
few left over stratus around with a scattered-broken VFR cumulus deck. Sdf and 
bwg should go VFR around 18z to 19z as visible satellite imagery 
continues to indicate thinning of the stratus. Taf sites should 
stay VFR with north-northwest winds from middle afternoon till later tonight. 


Then next aviation concern will be fog tomorrow morning. With calm 
winds...few-sct cloud cover...and low dewpt depressions expected 
late tonight into tomorrow morning...MVFR-IFR br will be 
anticipated. Will keep sdf and Lex in the MVFR Cat for now due to 
possibly a little more cloud cover than bwg. Will go with IFR at 
bwg as models signaling at a very moist stable atmos that will be 
conducive for IFR possibly lower visibilities. Will let later taf 
issuances trend visibilities down as needed. 






&& 


Lmk watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...none. 
In...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...aml 
long term....tar 
aviation.....Aml