910 
fxus64 klix 212059 
afdlix 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la 
359 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Short term... 
not much coverage of convection this afternoon...mostly confined 
to the western parishes and extreme southwest Mississippi with a 
weakening trend as they push eastward into drier air. Isolated 
coverage elsewhere is short-lived as outflows dominate. Just 
received a funnel cloud report over Murphy oil refinery in Meraux 
but this cell has already weakened in place between outflow 
mergers. Next couple of days should experience a drying column on 
the back side of Tropical Storm Fay inducing drier air from 
Appalachians into the middle-Gulf states. This should allow 
temperatures to warm in the middle 90s some locations while 
subsidence keeps mins up a few degrees except where drainage gets 
funneled down some of the river valleys. Will only show 20 percent 
probability of precipitation Friday...30 percent Saturday and 40-50 percent Sunday as 
moisture slowly increases in time. 


Long term... 
forecast beyond Sunday continues to be influenced by future track 
of Fay. Have not made any changes from previous packages beyond 
Sunday as the general gist and concensus remains in play. 


&& 


Aviation... 
isolated convection this afternoon into this evening could bring a 
brief period of MVFR or IFR conditions to the terminals. 
However...prevailing conditions should remain VFR. After 06z...some 
patchy fog could develop at kmcb and kbtr as a inversion develops. 
Visibilities may briefly drop to IFR at kmcb as model soundings 
indicate a slightly deeper inversion than at kbtr. By 14z 
tomorrow...VFR conditions will once again be in place at all terminals. 


Marine... 


Weak surface ridging will continue to dominate the coastal waters 
through tomorrow. However...the ridge will weaken and shift toward 
the western Gulf tomorrow night. At the same time...Tropical Storm 
Fay will be making inroads into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. As 
Fay moves to the west...winds will slowly increase and a decent 
swell train should begin to develop. Seas will respond fairly 
quickly...with small craft conditions expected by late Friday night 
due to the combination of winds and swells. These small craft 
conditions will persist through Monday as the remains of Tropical 
Storm Fay pull through Alabama and into Mississippi. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mcb 71 92 73 91 / 20 20 20 30 
btr 72 94 75 92 / 20 20 20 30 
msy 76 93 78 92 / 10 20 20 30 
gpt 74 92 73 90 / 10 20 20 60 


&& 


Lix watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
GM...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


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