744 
fxus61 kbox 212248 
afdbox 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
648 PM EDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will maintain dry weather through weekend. A cold 
front may bring showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday... 
before dry and seasonable weather returns for much of next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/... 
Crystal clear skies tonight as any high clouds remain to our west. Sea 
breezes will diminish this evening...leaving light winds across 
region. Expect patchy valley fog to develop overnight. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Friday morning through Friday night/... 
the high pressure over New York shifts farther offshore 
overnight... allowing for a more southerly wind and slightly warmer 
temperatures Friday. This high pressure should remain in place of 
the East Coast Friday night as well. 


MOS guidance temperatures look reasonable...so did not stray too far 
from the consensus given the quiet weather. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Thursday/... 
dry weather through most of the extended period as a large amplitude 
ridge remains entrenched across the northeast. Main item of interest 
is a cold front which is expected to cross region Sun night and Monday. 


12z GFS remains most progressive with this front...but even it keeps 
best lift and deeper moisture west of New England until Sun night. This 
means we should remain dry through weekend...though humidity will be 
more noticeable sun as SW flow nudges dewpoints into middle 60s. This 
increase in low level moisture coupled with light S/SW flow may lead 
to patchy fog/low clouds around Cape Cod and islands Sun night and 
Monday morning. 


We tempered quicker GFS solution with earlier runs of sref/gefs which 
suggest front will weaken and slow down as it pushes through 
southern New England. This may cause convection to redevelop Monday 
afternoon....especially across Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts where frontal convergence 
is maximized. Kept chance probability of precipitation Sun night and Monday...though we will 
show improving conditions in northern zones Monday afternoon as front 
reaches S coast. 


Beyond Monday...another stretch of dry and seasonable late Summer 
weather expected as upper ridge crests over region. We are still not 
very confident with idea of having some sort of tropical low well 
off southeast coast bringing moisture into our area by middle or late week...as 
this is not supported by gefs. Appears to be a very low probability 
event at this time. 


Stayed close to gmos for much of the extended period. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/... 
clear skies and light winds tonight will lead to local MVFR/IFR due 
to patchy valley fog. Only taf site that would be impacted would be 
kbaf. 


Only some patchy high clouds expected Friday with as winds become S 
under 10 knots. Sea breezes likely near coast after 15z. 


For kbos terminal area...only issue is onset of sea breeze Friday which 
should be around 15z. Should be more of a southeast /150/ wind due to a bit 
more of a southerly gradient than what we had today. 


Outlook... 
Sat...VFR. 
Sun...VFR. 
Monday...scattered thunderstorms with MVFR. 
Tuesday...VFR. 


&& 


Marine... 
tonight through Friday night...tranquil with sustained winds 10 
knots or less and seas less than 3 feet. 


Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... 


High pressure dominates Sat and sun. Generally light S/SW winds and 
flat seas. Patchy late night fog possible. 


Approaching cold front Sun night and Monday will increase SW winds a 
bit which in turn will gradually build seas...especially on outer 
waters. However winds are expected to remain below 25kt with seas 
no higher than 4 feet offshore. This is a little below wavewatch. 


High pressure builds back over waters Tuesday with light winds and 
diminishing seas. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Belk/jwd 
near term...jwd - 647 PM 
short term...Belk 
long term...jwd 
aviation...Belk/jwd - 647 PM 
marine...Belk/jwd