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fxus61 kbox 071207 
afdbox 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
707 am EST Sat Nov 7 2009 


Synopsis... 
a moderating temperature trend will commence today as high pressure 
drifts S of the region and produces an increasing west to SW flow 
through Monday night. A cold front will move across southern New 
England during midweek...introducing colder weather and the chance of 
precipitation. A coastal low may form along this cold front... 
possibly yielding more significant precipitation middle to late next 
week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
brisk northerly flow was diminishing this morning. Satellite pictures 
indicate leftover stratocumulus now well east of Cape Cod and 
Nantucket. Abundant sunshine and dry conditions will allow 
temperatures to recover this afternoon into the upper 40s to lower 
50s. Some high cirrus clouds will filter across the region ahead of 
the next cold front. Otherwise expect a mostly sunny and dry day. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Sunday/... 
tonight...mild southwest flow expected ahead of a weak cold front. 
The front will approach by daybreak. The front will have limited 
moisture in the form of scattered clouds. No precipitation is 
expected. 


Sunday...the front will sweep off the coast in the morning followed 
by sunny skies and mild conditions. Temperatures will rise well above 
seasonal norms with highs generally 60 to 65 degrees. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Friday/... 
fairly quiet forecast through Monday night with high pressure the 
main weather feature. 


Problems start to arise amongst the 00z models with their handling of 
a cold front Tuesday into Wednesday. 00z GFS is the fastest 
solution...with the European model (ecmwf) and ggem slightly slower. The consensus 
solution has this cold front crossing southern New England Tuesday 
night...then moving offshore Wednesday morning. Since this is close 
to previous forecast timing...will stay the course. The remnants of 
Ida may be a factor ahead of this cold front...but given the timing 
differences would prefer to keep the forecast conservative for now. 


Larger differences arise in the solutions for the middle level flow 
Thursday into Friday...with better agreement at the surface. For now 
will hold onto the idea of a dry forecast with high pressure across 
the middle Atlantic...but the timing of the next weather system could 
change this forecast over the next few days. 


Temperatures expected to start near to above normal early next 
week...then return to more seasonable levels toward next weekend. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
today...VFR. 


Tonight...VFR. Low level wind shear possible around 06z as a SW 
40 knots low level jet crosses the area ahead of a cold front. 


Sunday...VFR. Morning dry cold frontal passage with shifting winds to northwest. 


Outlook /Sunday night through Wednesday/... 


VFR through through Monday night...except isolated IFR in valley fog 
during the early morning hours each night. Conditions may lower to 
MVFR Tuesday ahead of a cold front. There is a chance of a coastal 
low developing Wednesday...which could produce widespread MVFR to IFR 
conditions. 


&& 


Marine... 
today...leftover small craft advisories for the eastern waters for 
seas. Latest observations indicate 4 to 6 foot seas across the eastern 
waters. Seas will subside by late morning. Winds will remain below 
Small Craft Advisory criteria. 


Tonight...a 35-45 knots SW low level jet will develop ahead of a cold 
front. Current vertical cross sections indicate 20 to 25 knots gusts 
possible with seas increasing to 4-5 feet in spots. This appears to 
be a marginal Small Craft Advisory across portions of the coastal waters. Will hold 
off on headlines for now so the day shift can re-assess and since 
there are still leftover headlines for rough seas generated by the 
maritime low. 


Sunday...shifting winds to northwest behind the cold front. A leftover 
Small Craft Advisory for 5 foot seas possible across the southern waters. Otherwise 
winds and seas expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. 


Outlook /Sunday night through Wednesday/... 


Small Craft Advisory 5 feet seas and some gusts to 25 kts should linger across a 
portion of the outer coastal waters into Sunday as a cold front 
passes through the waters. Then relatively tranquil weather across the 
coastal waters Sunday night into Tuesday. Seas may build Tuesday 
night and Wednesday as there is a chance for coastal low development. 
Winds may increase to gale force on Wednesday if coastal low develops. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EST this morning for anz254- 
255. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Belk 
near term...Strauss 
short term...Strauss 
long term...Belk 
aviation...Strauss/Belk 
marine...Strauss/Belk