598 
fxus61 kcar 072018 
afdcar 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME 
418 PM EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
strong low pressure will continue through the Maritimes while 
a weak surface ridge builds into the region tonight. This high 
pressure ridge will crest over the region Monday. A cold front 
will approach from the northwest Monday night and cross the 
region Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Unseasonably cool Canadian 
high pressure will build in for the middle of the week. 
&& 


Near term /through Monday/... 
strong low pressure continues to lift through the Canadian 
Maritimes while residual low level moisture remains in place 
across much of the County Warning Area this afternoon. Some isolated showers 
and/or patchy drizzle continues across mainly the eastern areas 
at this time. Satellite imagery is indicating clouds are trying to thin 
especially in the downslope areas of downeast Maine. 


The main concern will be the amount of clouds and any precipitation 
that will affect the region as a series of short waves rapidly 
traverse the state despite weak surface ridge building in tonight 
and Monday. The first short wave on satellite imagery is working 
through the Ottawa Valley and western New York state at this time. Model 
are in fairly good agreement that the area of convection 
associated with said short wave will weaken as it approaches the 
northern and western portion of the County Warning Area later tonight. With plenty 
of upstream clouds to move in will stay with a cloudy scenario for 
mainly the western and northern areas tonight. Will also include 
isolated probability of precipitation in these areas as well. For downeast...expect 
down Glide to improve sky conditions to eventually mostly clear 
downeast by later tonight. 


The next in the series of short waves will keep some clouds to 
northern and western areas Monday. Large scale lift associated 
with this short wave splits and moves across the north and over 
southwest Maine Monday afternoon. Again not expecting much 
precipitation with this system...however will mention isolated 
wording for western areas on Monday. 
&& 


Short term /Monday night through Tuesday night/... 
a warm air advection pattern on the back side of departing high 
pressure will gradually send some clouds into mainly the west 
parts of our forecast area (fa) late Monday night. 


A cold front will then quickly move into and through northern New England 
Tuesday and Tuesday night. We have sided with the faster global 
models considering their recent performance over the NAM. As a 
result we have probability of precipitation in the likely category Tuesday afternoon and 
evening... as a sharp cold front impinges on an increasingly moist 
and humid airmass over the region. 


Showers and thunderstorms will end from northwest to southeast Tuesday evening...with 
partial clearing thereafter. 


We are close to MOS temperatures guide this part of the forecast cycle. 
&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/... 
high pressure will dominate Wednesday and Thursday. Frost is 
possible Thursday morning in many northern valleys as winds 
decrease. A weak front approaches on Friday. The best chance of any 
precipitation in the area appears to be later Friday. Most 
precipitation will pass to the south of the area as a low pressure 
forms near Cape Cod and tracks eastward Saturday. A ridge of high 
pressure builds across northern Maine Saturday and spreads southward 
as the day progresses. 
&& 


Aviation /20z Sunday through Friday/... 
near term...MVFR conditions will slowly improve to VFR in all 
areas early tonight. However...some fog developing where 
significant rainfall occurred may result in MVFR ceilings late tonight. 
VFR conditions expected at all terminal Monday. 


Short term...VFR conditions Monday night will transition to 
restricted ceilings and visibilities Tuesday afternoon and evening as a sharp 
cold front passes across the sites with numerous showers and thunderstorms. 
&& 


Marine... 
near term...have issued an Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas in wake of 
strong low pressure moving away from our waters until 09z. Thereafter 
expect conditions below Small Craft Advisory criteria Monday. 


Short term...winds and seas will be on the increase Tuesday and 
Tuesday night...ahead of a sharp cold front that will be 
approaching and then passing through the waters. 
&& 


Car watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 am EDT Monday 
for anz050>052. 
&& 


$$ 


Near term...fitzsimmons 
short term...sturey 
long term...mwalker 
aviation...fitzsimmons 
marine...fitzsimmons/sturey