361 
fxus61 kgyx 211842 
afdgyx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
242 PM EDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will remain anchored offshore well into the weekend. 
A return southwesterly flow will develop and import a warmer...more 
humid air mass for the weekend. Low pressure...well north of the 
region...will move eastward Sunday and Monday and drag a cold front 
across the forecast area Sunday night and/or early Monday morning. 
Behind the front...a cooler...drier air mass will work its way into 
the region on a northwest flow. High pressure will approach the region 
Monday night and crest over the region on Wednesday. 




&& 


Near term /until 8 PM this evening/... 
clear skies and light winds. 


&& 


Short term /8 PM this evening through 6 PM Friday/... 
clear skies and light winds will allow for radiational cooling 
overnight. Dewpoints a tad bit higher than previous nights... 
so expect overnight lows to be a tad bit higher. Also...a bit 
more in the way of valley fog than last night. Mostly sunny 
again on Friday...perhaps with a few more late afternoon clouds 
dewpoints increasing to around 60 during the late afternoon. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/... 
the upper level ridge over the northeast will start to flatten 
Friday night and Saturday as a trough approaches from central 
Canada. Expect fog to develop in valley locations again Friday 
night due to radiational cooling. The flattening upper ridge may 
allow some high level cloud cover to move in late in the day 
Saturday...but would expect skies to be sunny through most of the 
day and temperatures should warm into the 80s. 


The through should push east Saturday night through Monday. At the 
surface...an associated cold front will push east across the 
forecast area late Sunday and Sunday night. The front should move 
off the coast Monday morning. Timing is still a bit uncertain at 
that time range with some models indicating a slower eastward 
progress of the front. In any event would expect a period of 
scattered showers and thunderstorms to precede the front. Late 
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night would be the time period to 
expect the showers and thunderstorms based on the 12z model 
guidance...but the timing could change based on later model runs. 
Increased cloud cover and possible showers should hold high 
temperatures in the middle 70s to lower 80s Sunday. 


High pressure should build in behind the cold front early next 
week and hold any potential percipitation producing systems at Bay 
through midweek. The high will bring dry weather and cooler 
temperatures in the 70s through midweek. 


&& 


Aviation /17z Thursday through Monday/... 
short term...mostly VFR through Friday except for patchy valley 
fog 08z-12z Friday morning...lowering conditions to IFR/LIFR those areas. 


Long term...look for local IFR/LIFR conditions in valley fog Friday 
night and possibly again Saturday night...otherwise VFR conditions 
should prevail through Sunday morning. A period of scattered 
showers and thunderstorms can be expected beginning in mountain 
areas Sunday afternoon and progressing southeast to the coast 
Sunday night. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...no flags. 


Long term...a southwest flow ahead of an advancing cold front is 
expected to increase Sunday afternoon into Sunday night and this 
could push winds and seas above Small Craft Advisory criteria. 
Scattered thunderstorms can also be expected ahead of the cold 
front. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Long term...Wheeler