825 
fxus61 kcar 230759 
afdcar 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME 
259 am EST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will move east of the state today. Low pressure will 
track east of the Gulf of Maine Tuesday bringing a chance of rain 
to downeast areas. High pressure is expected to build across the 
region Wednesday. 
&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
strong high pressure currently in place extending from the east 
of Nova Scotia across northern Maine. Expect this ridge to 
gradually weaken as low pressure developing off the Middle Atlantic 
States moves northeastward. Currently low clouds developing across 
coastal sections. This area should gradually expand as convergence 
zone develops along coast as off-shore low moves to north. Have 
used the Gem to populate sky grids since it currently has the best 
handle on current situation. Low pressure should stay well to 
southeast so will confine highest probability of precipitation to south. Have use a blend 
of the NAM...GFS and sref to populate pop grids. Expect winds to 
remain light with strong ridge in place. Will use gmos for wind 
grids. Current temperature and dew point forecast looks reasonable 
so will only make some minor adjustment in close near term. 
&& 


Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday/... 
a small area of low pressure lifting out of the middle Atlantic region 
will be tracking south of the Gulf of Maine on Tuesday. Rain from 
the system may come close enough to brush the downeast coast on 
Tuesday. Further north...ridging should maintain partly cloudy skies. 
The system will move away Tuesday night and ridging will return later 
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This should bring a dry day Wednesday 
though some high clouds may begin to increase from a large trough 
of low pressure beginning to approach from the Great Lakes. 
&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
a large trough of low pressure will be approaching from the Midwest 
late in the week. This trough is expected to support development 
of low pressure along the middle Atlantic region Friday. The low should 
then track north bringing a good chance for rain late Friday into 
Friday night. Cooler air moving into the trough may allow rain 
to taper off to snow showers over the weekend as the low lifts 
away. High pressure should then return for early next week. 
&& 


Aviation /08z Monday through Friday/... 
near term: VFR conditions are expected through tonight. 


Short term: 
low pressure tracking off the coast may bring MVFR or IFR conditions 
downeast on Tuesday with VFR conditions expected to prevail over 
the north. VFR conditions are then expected in high pressure Tuesday 
night into Thursday night. May have to watch for some lower clouds 
moving in from the south later Thursday night or early Friday as 
low level winds bring moisture up from the south. 


&& 


Marine... 
near term: will use a blend of the nam12 and gfs40 to initialize 
wind grids. Will increase speed a few knots later today in 
northerly flow...otherwise staying with model blend. For waves: 
have populated grids with wna/4. Will make some minor adjustments 
in intra-coastal zone but wave model looks reasonable off coast. 
Will start generic Small Craft Advisory at 06z tonight will need only for seas but 
will keep generic since winds come up later Tuesday. 


Short term: 
low pressure moving offshore may bring Small Craft Advisory winds through Tuesday 
night. Ridging will then bring lighter winds Wednesday into Thursday 
before another low moving up from the south bring a return of higher 
winds and chance for an Small Craft Advisory on Friday. 
&& 


Car watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 1 am Tuesday to 6 am EST Wednesday 
for anz050-051. 


&& 


$$ 
Near term...mignone 
short term...Bloomer 
long term...Bloomer 
aviation...mignone 
marine...mignone/Bloomer