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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
834 PM EDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Synopsis... 
low pressure well to the east of the region will drift north 
toward Nova Scotia tonight and Friday. A cold front will approach 
the region late Friday night...then cross the area Saturday 
afternoon and Saturday evening. High pressure will build in behind 
the front Saturday night through Wednesday. Another cold front 
will approach the region on Thursday. 


&& 


Near term /until 8 am Friday morning/... 
middle and high clouds continue to generate on the eastern part of 
the ridge over western New England. Meanwhile the low well 
offshore will back low clouds in from the northeast tonight and 
Friday. The air is rather dry so it may take a while to moisten 
enough to support those low clouds...but expect them to make it 
into southern Maine later tonight. The middle and high clouds may 
delay the formation of fog in the Connecticut valley but expect it 
to develop near sunrise. Went with a blend between the met and the 
cooler mav. 


&& 


Short term /8 am Friday morning through 6 PM Friday/... 
low level moisture will linger and keep a good deal of low clouds 
over the region. The question is how far west they will make it. 
Expect that they wont make it much beyond western Maine. Portions 
of New Hampshire that get some sun could make it to the upper 70s 
while middle coast of Maine lingers in the 60s thanks to the onshore 
flow. There could be a few stray showers around in eastern areas 
but none of much significance. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Thursday/... 
cold front approaches the region from the west Friday night 
bringing a a slight chance of showers to northern zones but expect 
any activity to be very light and spotty. 


Mostly cloudy day for Saturday as frontal boundary slowly crosses 
the area with little more than scattered showers. Marginal 
instability in yesterdays models pretty much gone in today's runs 
so leaving out any mention of convection. Could see some sunny 
breaks late in the day in western zones but on the whole looking 
like a fairly cloudy day. 


Front moves offshore Saturday and with the exception of upslope 
areas in the mountains...should see clearing skies as high 
pressure builds in from the west. 


Upper trough crosses the region on Sunday so not a perfectly clear 
day as instability probability of precipitation off scattered to broken cumulus across the 
region. Best instability and chance for showers generally in 
eastern Maine but can't rule out a stray drip or two in far 
northeastern zones. 


High pressure continues to build in from the west Sunday night 
and should insure quiet weather through midweek. Warmer air begins 
it's push back into the region on Tuesday pushing temperatures 
into the 80s in most locations away from the coast. Model 850 
temperatures suggest temperatures well above normal for Wednesday and 
Thursday. 


&& 


Aviation /01z Friday through Tuesday/... 
short term...starting 
out VFR...but IFR in valley fog along the Connecticut valley near 
dawn. Also look for MVFR/IFR ceilings moving in from the east to 
southern Maine later tonight and Friday. 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
areas of MVFR ceilings Friday night and Saturday associated with 
passing cold front. Generally VFR Sunday through Tuesday. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term /tonight and Friday/...winds still fairly gusty especially 
near Mount Desert Rock where it is gusting to around 20 kts. The 
winds will relax by evening and conditions will remain below Small 
Craft Advisory criteria. 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
no problems noted. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$