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fxus63 kapx 301125 
afdapx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gaylord Michigan 
725 am EDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Synopsis.../issued at 420 am/...high pressure will be the driving 
force behind the area's weather through the Holiday 
weekend...resulting in plentiful sunshine and summerlike 
temperatures. 


Lutz 


&& 


Short term.../issued at 420 am/...today...what can we say, high 
pressure. Other than the weak 500 mb wave that is going through east 
upper at the moment and the 88d showing sprinkles in the region, 
the rest of the day will be mainly sunny and warm as the surface high 
builds and the 500 mb heights begin rise rapidly. Temperatures 
looks to be around 80 in east upper and lower 80s in north lower. 


Lutz 


&& 


Long term.../issued at 420 am/...tonight and beyond...models are 
in good agreement again and in the longer range the European model (ecmwf) is 
beginning to go with the GFS on the Wednesday afternoon cold 
frontal passage. 


Tonight through Sunday night....heights continue to build so that 
more dry air moves into the region it looks like the threat for 
fog will be down as the low temperatures move up, but the 
dewpoints will rise only a bit. So the dewpoint depression should 
be 4f or 5f. During Sunday as the 500 mb heights reach their Max, 
and the return flow is really starting to get going so 
temperatures will get into the lower to middle 80s across the 
forecast area. With the gradient wind continuing out of the south 
the temperatures will continue to move up bit by bit so that the 
Sunday night lows will be in the middle 50s across most of the 
forecast area. 


Monday and Monday night...this is still looking like the warmest 
day. As the 850 mb temperatures continue to increase pushing to 
around 18c. This would mix out around 90f or maybe a little lower. 
The met and mav numbers are too low as the climatology factor is keeping 
them from getting to high. The normal high for Gaylord is 73f. It 
is a good thing that the gradient is still pretty loose, winds 
will remain light. The dewpoints will be in the lower 50s, so it 
looks like the min relative humidity will fall to around 25% with some spots 
downsloping and possibly falling to the high teens. However, with 
the return flow it looks like that the moisture will increase 
overnight, and would expect some fair humidity recovery overnight. 
Will still expect a clear sky though. 


Tuesday and beyond...the high lingers into Tuesday and Tuesday 
night, but a cold front pushes into the west Great Lakes by 
Wednesday. The models may be pushing it with the amount of quantitative precipitation forecast at 
this point. The 500 mb wave is lifting and most of the energy 
reinforcing the cold front will be north of Lake Superior. So the 
no weather probability of precipitation for now are good. It looks like that one of the 
tropical systems make landfall Tuesday and is in the lower 
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. While this may not halt the 
systems from moving across the north conus, it will cut off some of 
the moisture return and shunt most of the energy that would bring 
in precipitation to the Great Lakes north of US. Looks like that 
once this front is through, then high pressure builds in for a 
couple of days, then a new wave moves through the Great Lakes for 
Friday night/Saturday which is in the forecast grids at the 
moment. 


Lutz 


&& 


Marine.../issued at 420 am/...high pressure will again bring 
light winds and waves from 2 feet or less through the next couple 
of days. Again with the light flow expect onshore winds during the 
afternoon as the inland temperatures heat up to around 90f. 


Lutz 


&& 


Aviation.../issued at 724 am/...valid for 12z tafs...with the 
high pressure, dry is moving in and beginning to eat away at the 
fog. The low clouds in east upper will move out and not affect pln or 
apn this morning. Lake breezes will affect tvc and apn today. 
Based on yesterday's timing it looks like 18z when things should 
start to turn as far as wind direction. Fog is less likely tonight 
with dewpoint depressions expected to be greater. 


Lutz 


&& 


Apx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Michigan...none. 
Lm...none. 
LH...none. 
Ls...none. 


&& 


$$