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fxus63 kapx 210120 
afdapx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gaylord Michigan 
920 PM EDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Synopsis.../issued at 257 PM/ 


High pressure across the Great Lakes will provide tranquil 
conditions through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. 
This will produce dry and increasingly mild temperatures into the 
early half of next week. Another weak cold front will provide a bit 
more cloud cover around midweek...but dry condition will continue 
with high pressure returning for the second half of next week. 


&& 


Short term.../issued at 920 PM/...tonight 


Surface front way down in the Ohio Valley. Fgen-related precipitation band 
is well to the north in southern/central lower Michigan...tending to 
weaken since afternoon. There might be a flurry or two in southern 
Gladwin/Arenac counties...but given snow has stopped at mbs...there 
certainly won't be much. 


However...cirrus deck has expanded back across most of northern 
lower Michigan. Grids have already been updated to increase cloud cover in 
the evening and early overnight...text products will reflect that 
shortly. Some thinning noted in western WI and points west...but it 
will take longer for that to happen here. And with that in mind... 
will tweak temperatures upward slightly in northern lower. The sault and 
Kinross already in the middle 20s...and temperatures will be adjusted downward 
in parts of eastern upper. 


Jz 


&& 


Long term.../issued at 257 PM/...Sunday and beyond 


Sun through Tuesday...another fantastic stretch of early Spring weather in the 
works to welcome the new work week as heights gradually rebound with 
shortwave ridging slowly building into the Great Lakes. 
Meanwhile...elongated low level ridging will hang tough across the 
region as well...with a very dry airmass in place (pwats holding 
below 0.25 inches) supporting plentiful sunshine each day and clear 
skies at night. Said dry airmass coupled with moderation of low 
level thermal regime will easily allow temperatures to spike back well 
above normal right on through Tuesday...when readings should top 50 
degrees in most spots. However...within light wind/dry air 
regime...nighttime lows will be back around normal for late 
March...mainly in the 20s (with a few teens in the usual cold 
spots). 


Later periods (tue night through sat)...quiet weather marches on as we head 
toward the end of the month. Overall upper air pattern across North 
America looks to remain dominated by briefly stable Rex block type 
pattern across Alaska...with broad upper ridging extending over the 
western Continental U.S. And persistent polar vortex drifting around northern 
Hudson Bay. This pattern will keep plenty of cold air across much of 
central/eastern Canada but rather progressive flow pattern across the 
lower 48 will provide little vehicle to transport the really cold 
stuff down this way. That being said...a few systems to 
note...basically one on Wednesday with medium range guidance showing 
weakening wave/cool front dropping through the area...and another later 
Thursday night or early Friday with a similar scenario. Neither 
system even close to impressive and both severely lacking 
moisture...increasing confidence that the dry weather pattern will 
persist right on through the week. 


Have sided heavily with the quite consistent 20/00z European model (ecmwf) solution 
(and to a lesser extent the 20/00z ggem) through the extended...as the 
GFS has been persistently way too wet and amplified with these 
northern stream waves the past few months...with its 20/00z and 06z 
solutions following that trend this go around. As such...envision a 
pattern with weaker northern stream systems skirting tight thermal 
gradient just north of the Great Lakes...and additional stronger 
southern stream energy sliding the Tennessee Valley right on through 
the week. In between...elongated low level ridging should 
dominate...with overall mainly sunny conditions...though at times 
interrupted with brief pushes of thicker middle/high level cloudiness 
(associated with weaker northern stream waves). Temperatures to remain 
above climatology through Wed/Thu...but likely cooling back down closer to 
reality Friday/Sat as some cooler air finally bleeds south into the 
region (though in all likelihood current guidance a bit too cold per 
recent trends). 


Lawrence 


&& 


Marine.../issued at 257 PM/ 


High pressure will gradually build into the region heading through 
the early portions of the work week...supporting mainly light winds 
and low waves. By later Tuesday...increasing northeast fetch across 
Lake Huron may should support some higher waves near the northeast 
lower coastline...though appears conditions will remain below Small 
Craft Advisory criteria. A weak cold front will cross the waters 
later Tuesday night or early Wednesday and briefly shift winds 
northwesterly...with a return to high pressure in its wake then 
supplying low waves and winds once again Wednesday into Thursday. 


Lawrence 


&& 


Aviation.../issued at 723 PM/...valid for 00z tafs 


Solidly VFR. Cirrus will thin out tonight as stalled front in the 
Ohio Valley become somewhat less active. Mainly clear skies expected 
Sunday. 


Jz 


&& 


Apx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Michigan...none. 
Lm...none. 
LH...none. 
Ls...none. 


&& 


$$