110 
fxus63 kmpx 200413 
afdmpx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota 
1113 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2008 


Update... 
dew points up a little from last night in a few spots but 
temperature changes vary on the plus and minus side from 24 hours ago. 
Pressure gradient a little tighter than last night. Will introduce 
some patchy fog over WI and eastern Minnesota in weaker gradient area and 
higher dew points. Otherwise sky conditions...temperatures and wind look 
OK from previous forecast. 


&& 


Discussion... 


The weather pattern over the upper Midwest...will remain rather 
quiet through Thursday night. Surface high pressure ridge over the 
eastern Continental U.S....will slowly retreat off to the east...allowing low 
pressure trough to develop and strengthen over the northern plains 
and upper Midwest toward the end of the work week. In the 
meantime...mainly clear skies along with seasonal temperatures on 
tap tonight through Thursday. 


Only forecast concern in the near term...is cloud cover in the 
eastern section of our County Warning Area (western Wisconsin and east central 
mn). Pacific origin moisture...will continue to spill over the 
upper ridge into western Wisconsin. Cloud bases have been 
generally at or above 8k feet above ground level. Expect some patchy or scattered 
altocumulus clouds during the overnight hours. Elsewhere...skies 
will remain clear. 


In the medium range...cold front will slowly approach the upper 
Midwest Thursday into Saturday morning. Went along with the GFS 
solution...by keeping the best probability of precipitation Friday and Friday night 
timeframe. 


Rain showers/thunderstorms and rain chances quickly decreasing as the drier air sweeps in 
behind the cold front. Left some small probability of precipitation going Saturday morning 
over our far eastern section of Wisconsin County Warning Area. Afterwards...dry 
and more tolerable temperature/humidity readings Sunday through Wednesday. 


&& 


Aviation.../06z taf issuance/ 


VFR conditions for entire forecast period....with the exception of 
a brief period of MVFR visibilities in fog over west central Wisconsin. 
Dew points up a bit on more of a southeast traj overnight along with 
a still weaker pressure gradient. Some 040-060 cumulus developing...primarily 
over eastern Minnesota and western WI late morning into the 
afternoon...then gradually dissipating in the evening. Tighter 
pressure gradient over western Minnesota will cause some gusts over 
western Minnesota during the afternoon. 


&& 


Mpx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Jvm/jpr