019 
fxus63 kfgf 231725 aaa 
afdfgf 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 
1125 am CST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Discussion... 
the main forecast challenge is precipitation. When looking at the latest 
surface analysis...an area of low pressure is centered near 
aty...with an inverted trough extending through the Red River valley. 
When looking at the models...they remain consistent in moving the 
low to the NE today...so ended up using a model blend for the 
forecast. 


Radar imagery is showing a band of rain moving mostly north through southeast 
ND and wc Minnesota into NE ND and northwest Minnesota. Concerns earlier today were that 
precipitation would move fast enough north to be freezing rain in areas that were colder. 
However...temperatures have been able to rise above freezing before precipitation 
arrives. Calls to area law enforcement indicate that roads are just 
wet with no freezing rain reported. Thus...have cancelled Freezing Rain Advisory 
and removed all mention of anything but rain from forecast for the 
rest of today. Otherwise...current forecast in good shape...with 
only minor changes needed. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR ceilings and visibilities will continue to fall to MVFR and even IFR as 
area of rain and br continue to overspread east ND and the rest of northwest 
Minnesota this afternoon. Winds turning from NE to west-northwest with trough passage but 
remaining pretty light...around 5 kts...through the afternoon. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 316 am CST Monday Nov 23 2009/ 


Discussion... 
the main challenge will be precipitation chances and temperatures. A fairly 
muddled upper level pattern exists over the Continental U.S....with energy 
split in the upper levels. There are several shortwaves that will 
affect our sensible weather though this week...with the strongest 
wave Tuesday night/Wed. Models are in good overall agreement...with 
the GFS doing much better with quantitative precipitation forecast initialization. 


For tonight...expect the best chance for mainly rain along and 
east of the valley with the best forcing here. Temperatures will be coolest 
in the northwest and much warmer in the east with higher dewpoints and 
clouds/precipitation expected. 


On Tuesday...there may be a break in the precipitation with a strong shortwave 
digging into Montana. Temperatures will be above normal once again with a 
chance for some light rain in the east. 


For Tuesday night/Wed...a strong shortwave and associated lift will 
move in from the west. Expect rain/snow mix gradually changing to 
all snow on Wednesday for all areas. There could be some light 
accumulations of an inch or so mainly along and east of the valley 
where deeper moisture combines with shortwave. It will also become 
brisk/windy with north winds increase and cold air advection. Temperatures 
may not rise too much on Wednesday and may even fall some by afternoon. 


For Thanksgiving and Friday...expect several dry days along with 
temperatures near normal. The warmer day should be Friday with a shortwave 
ridge and slowly warming thermal fields aloft. 


&& 


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
ND...none. 
Minnesota...none. 
&& 


$$ 
Ng