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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 
815 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008 


Discussion...main concern overnight will be cloud cover. See 
aviation section for thinking about cloud trends. Adjusted sky 
grids to fit current thinking. Still think middle 30s for min temperatures 
where cloud cover will be located 09z-12z. Still expect min temperatures 
in the 27f-30f range outside of cloud cover (clear skies and light 
winds). 


&& 


Aviation...western edge of rather solid area of stratocu has made 
it to kgfk and exists along and west of a line from Cavalier to gfk 
to pkd. Ceiling heights in the 3000ft-5000ft range. Models show winds 
in the 3-5kft range will become due north for a period of the 
night...then more northwest...so expect these clouds will remain in their 
current place through about 06z-09z then shift east. Kbji may 
experience periodic MVFR ceilings. Wind speeds will become light by 
morning. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 303 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008/ 


Short term... 
forecast issue tonight is western extent of stratocu clouds dropping 
into northern Minnesota and temperatures. 18z surface map shows surface high ridge from SW 
Saskatchewan through eastern Montana into western Nebraska. Meanwhile surface low was over 
central Ontario north of Lake Superior. An extensive stratocu deck 
extended west of this low and associated 500 mb vorticity into southern Manitoba 
and far northern Minnesota. As vorticity and surface low slide east tonight...expect 
cloud shield to continue to drop into northern Minnesota. GFS/NAM/RUC all show 
1000-850 mb moisture deck with this feature getting as far west as 
NE ND this evening then shift a bit east overnight..but hanging 
over most of northern Minnesota (east of hco-tvf-bji) the majority of the night. 
Did sky cover with this idea in mind. Thus did go warmer lows in 
thicker cloud area over the far northeast with middle 30s. Low temperatures 
and cloud cover in the Langdon-gfk-dtl-pkd corridor a bit more 
problematic. Feel area will be partly cloudy for the balance of 
the night as western edge erodes with sunset. Far western and southwest 
forecast area (dvl-far-ffm) should be clear all night. With surface high 
not arriving until 12z over eastern ND enough mixing will occur most of 
the night to prevent a free fall in temperatures. Upstream dew points in the 
27-30 range for the most part and would expect similar readings 
for lows tonight outside of thickest cloud cover areas. 


Sent out a pns regarding the ending of any frost/freeze headlines 
for the season. Thus no headline will be out tonight. 
Bis/abr/dlh/mpx all have stopped frost/freeze headlines as well. 


Thursday will see a weak short wave drop east-southeast from southern 
Montana into South Dakota with some thicker middle clouds associated with this likely 
skirting our far southwestern forecast area. This wave will slowly 
move southeast Thursday night allowing a second high to drop south 
into northern Minnesota Thursday night...giving them cooler weather that night than tonight. 


Expect a good warm up on Saturday as a strong surface low moves through 
southern Canada north of Calgary-Winnipeg track and southwest winds at 
the surface with 850 mb temperatures in the 12 to 16c range. A a period of 
middle clouds will likely precede warmer airmass late Friday into 
early Saturday especially across the north. No precipitation expected as 
850 mb levels Friday-Sat are dry and condensation pressure deficits 
high. Surface front to move through Sat night with a small threat for 
precipitation Lake of The Woods region. Kept it dry for now however as main 
threat is farther north. 


Long term [sun-wed]... 
long range discussions today favor more of a GFS/European model (ecmwf) blend...which 
seems fine as they are not too much different. At 500mb...will start 
the period in zonal flow...then transition to building heights and 
surface high pressure for Monday/Monday night. Next frontal passage looks to 
be on tap for later Tuesday into Wednesday. Will keep precipitation chances for the 
passage of this front and short wave...which is consistent from 
yesterday. As far as temperatures go...they look to remain fairly close to 
normal. 


&& 


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
ND...none. 
Minnesota...none. 
&& 


$$ 
Tg