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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 
732 am CST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Discussion... 
getting a few reports of light freezing rain in Norman County. 
With the rain band lifting north into areas that have been in the 
low/middle 20s overnight...will issue a Freezing Rain Advisory 
through noon for a small portion of the region. Temperatures will rise 
above freezing late this morning and the threat for freezing rain 
will end. 


&& 


Aviation... 
an area of IFR conditions is advecting in from the south. This 
should continue through the day...along with some light rain 
possible. Expect the far/bji and gfk taf sites to have the best 
potential of MVFR/IFR conditions developing today. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 316 am CST Monday Nov 23 2009/ 


Discussion... 
the main challenge will be precipitation chances and temperatures. A fairly 
muddled upper level pattern exists over the Continental U.S....with energy 
split in the upper levels. There are several shortwaves that will 
affect our sensible weather though this weak...with the strongest 
wave Tuesday night/Wed. Some rain showers are advecting into the 
south...and will need to monitor if any of this may be freezing 
rain for a few hours early this morning. Models are in good 
overall agreement...with the GFS doing much better with quantitative precipitation forecast 
initialization. 


For today...a weak trough and precipitable waters and strong middle 
level Omega will lift from south to north. Expect most of the 
precipitation to fall as rain...with a warming column. There could be 
some mixing with snow in the west...and perhaps a brief period of 
freezing rain where temperatures have dipped below freezing overnight. 
Will mention a brief period of light freezing rain/rain where 
temperatures should remain below freezing through 15z. Temperatures will be 
above normal once again. 


For tonight...expect the best chance for mainly rain along and 
east of the valley with the best forcing here. Temperatures will be 
coolest in the northwest and much warmer in the east with higher 
dewpoints and clouds/precipitation expected. 


On Tuesday...there may be a break in the precipitation with a strong 
shortwave digging into Montana. Temperatures will be above normal once again 
with a chance for some light rain in the east. 


For Tuesday night/Wed...a strong shortwave and associated lift will 
move in from the west. Expect rain/snow mix gradually changing to 
all snow on Wednesday for all areas. There could be some light 
accumulations of an inch or so mainly along and east of the valley 
where deeper moisture combines with shortwave. It will also become 
brisk/windy with northerly winds increase and cold air advection. 
Temperatures may not rise too much on Wednesday and may even fall some by afternoon. 


For Thanksgiving and Friday...expect several dry days along with 
temperatures near normal. The warmer day should be Friday with a 
shortwave ridge and slowly warming thermal fields aloft. 


&& 


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
ND...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for ndz026>030-038. 


Minnesota...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for mnz001-002. 


&& 


$$ 
Dk