031 
fxus63 kdlh 160157 
afddlh 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 
857 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008 


Update...radar and observation indicate light rain showers/drizzle across The 
Arrowhead region. Satellite also indicates the cloud cover contiue 
to stream across northern portion of forecast area. All of this is 
associated with weak short waves moves around low near Hudson 
Bay. Area south and southwest of dlh should have more breaks 
clouds. Will raise overnight low under cloudy skies and change 
little temperatures in less cloudy areas. Ridge will build into forecast 
area Thursday pushing most of the clouds out. Rest of forecast 
unchanged. 


Stewart 






&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 235 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008/ 


Discussion... 
short term forecast focus on cloud cover overnight and affect on low 
temperatures. The NAM h10-850 mb relative humidity field had a good hold on the 
low clouds that pushed into the region early this 
morning...dissipating this afternoon from the SW as currently seen on 
visible Sat imagery. With increased confidence in the NAM...this was 
model of choice for clouds/temperatures overnight as well as on Thursday. 
Expecting the clearing form the SW to continue this evening...then 
the stratus returns to the northern zones...mainly after 04z. Introduced 
patchy -dz wording to northern tier of counties after midnight based 
on surface stations upstream in southern Canada currently reporting -ra/dl 
as well as bufr sounding at inl and along the border showing increasing 
low level moisture after 04z. 


In the north...due to the additional cloud cover 
expected...increased overnight lows a few degrees. 
At this time...temperatures are expected to remain warm enough...middle 
30s...for any light precipitation/dz to remain liquid. However...if cold air advection 
is strong enough to drop temperatures further than expected or 
-dz reaches further S into the already sub-freezing air...a brief 
period of isolated fzdl could arise. At this time...confidence and threat is 
not high enough to mention any patchy -fzdz in the forecast...but later 
shifts will monitor closely. 


In the southern areas...advancing dry air depicted on the WV imagery 
will continue to erode the cloud cover this evening and overnight. 
The clearing skies and light winds overnight in the southern zones will 
allow for additional radiational cooling. Trended overnight lows 
down a few degrees...with the coolest temperatures...around 30 
f...expected in the Cass Lake to Brainerd lakes area. 


Continued the downward trend with temperatures Thursday night as 
high pressure builds east through the Dakotas...settling over the 
western Great Lakes region by late Thursday. The combination of light winds 
and mostly clear skies is setting up for widespread temperatures in 
the 20s by Friday morning. A short wave pushed east over South 
Dakota and southern Minnesota Thursday night into Friday. At this time...the best lift 
and moisture looks to remain south and west of the forecast area. A return flow 
develops by the end of the week bringing a slight warm up into the 
weekend. 


Aviation...considerable stratocu and mainly low VFR ceilings in 
association with cold air advection will continue to gradually 
dissipate through early this evening as drier low and middle level air 
is advected into the region. For tonight...as a broad trough over 
Canada slowly pushes south...there will be some increase in low 
stratus across The Arrowhead and Borderland...including at 
kinl...along with the return to at least tempo MVFR ceilings. There 
will also be an increase in high clouds late tonight and Thursday 
morning... particularly from kdlh and points west...in advance of a 
weak system to our west. Winds will remain west to northwest through 
18z Thursday...and while initially brisk and gusty...will diminish 
markedly after 00z this evening as weak high pressure builds over 
northern Minnesota. 


&& 


Point temps/pops... 
dlh 37 49 31 50 / 10 10 10 10 
inl 38 49 25 51 / 10 10 10 10 
brd 32 52 31 55 / 10 10 10 10 
hyr 35 52 30 50 / 10 10 10 10 
asx 36 49 30 49 / 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... 


Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
Ls...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for lsz121- 
lsz140-lsz141-lsz142-lsz143-lsz144-lsz145-lsz146-lsz147- 
lsz148. 




$$ 


Stewart