914 
fxus63 kdlh 282113 aaa 
afddlh 


Area forecast discussion...mesoscale update 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 
412 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Mesoscale update...concerning severe weather threat in the 
Duluth/Cloquet areas through 6 PM... 


Severe thunderstorm near Floodwood is far enough south to be within 
axis of greater deep layer shear of around 40 kts and is also 
located within maximum instability axis..with MUCAPES 1000-1500 j/kg. 


Storm has become extremely well organized in volumetric radar data 
in the past 30 minutes and appears to have become a supercell with a 
well-defined bwer and persistent mesocyclone. Low level z/v data 
also indicates a very well organized outflow now propagating out of 
the main z core. 


Given the structure and deep layer shear present..it appears that 
this storm should be able to maintain supercell characteristics for at 
least another hour or so as it moves southeastward along Highway 2 corridor 
between Gowan and Proctor and eventually into/across the southern 
half of the Duluth-Superior metropolitan area and Cloquet between 430 and 6 
PM. At least quarter size hail appears likely..along with 60-70 miles per hour 
winds within the rear flank downdraft to the immediate south of the 
reflectivity core. 
Miller 


&& 


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... 


Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
Ls...none. 


$$