540 
fxus63 kmpx 152327 
afdmpx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota 
627 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008 


Update... 


Added aviation discussion for 00z tafs below... 


&& 


Discussion... 
sky clearing rapidly across most of the Minnesota County Warning Area this afternoon. 
Remaining stratocu over wc WI will gradually break up during the 
early evening. Then question remains if northern Minnesota clouds will 
rotate south into northern County Warning Area later tonight. Some cyclonic 
curvature expected to remain across the northeast County Warning Area during the 
night...so will keep some clouds over this region overnight. 
With surface high building into western Minnesota late...winds will 
diminish and temperatures should cool to around 30 west. With lower and 
middle 30s in the east. Have finished and frost/freeze advection for the 
season across southern Minnesota/wc WI. 


Next short wave moving across western Montana this afternoon... 
forecast to move across the Dakotas Thursday. 295k isentropic 
forecast showing some lift moving across mainly southern portion 
of the County Warning Area Thursday night into Friday. 12z GFS was faster with this 
system...though 12z European model (ecmwf) showing system a little more amplified. 
Will follow more of the NAM forecast movement. 15z sref probs 
focusing on the southwest/SC Minnesota portion of the County Warning Area as well. Just 
some middle/high level clouds expected over central County Warning Area. This should 
exit to the southeast over the area Friday afternoon. 


Broad ridging aloft forecast to move across the County Warning Area Saturday. Surface 
cold front moving across central Dakotas...leaving Minnesota in warm air advection zone. This 
should promote good warming across the region with some lower 70s 
possible again the southwest County Warning Area...if enough sunshine occurs. 
Cooler air follows for early next week with another shot of rain 
coming mainly Tuesday night and Wednesday. 


&& 






Aviation.../00z taf issuance/ 


High pressure across the western Dakotas will move eastward 
tonight. Skies have cleared across the Minnesota sites and will quickly 
do so across the WI sites by about 01z. Another swath of cloud 
cover continues across northern Minnesota but the leading edges 
should also dissipate this evening so expect skies to remain clear 
at the taf sites through late evening before few-scattered 030-040 clouds 
try to work into kaxn and kstc early Thursday morning. Winds will 
remain mainly in the 290 to 310 degree range this evening with a few 
remaining gusts to near 20 kts until 01z or so with speeds 
dropping off to between 4 and 7 kts during the evening. Have 
decided to add patchy fog /bcfg/ to Keau late tonight along with 
tempo 3/4sm visible from 11 to 13z. Winds should slacken enough for 
some fog development over the adjacent Chippewa river but stay 
strong enough to possibly push any river fog over the airfield. 
Conditions may be a bit marginal for this to occur but there is 
enough support in forecast sounding profiles to work with the 
local effects to warrant inclusion in the taf. 


Upper level low pressure currently across western Montana and 
Wyoming will move eastward through Thursday bringing an increase 
in high and middle cloud cover through the afternoon. Some light rain 
may occur at krwf Thursday night and early Friday. MVFR ceilings are 
also a possibility across the Minnesota sites Friday morning. ..mdb.. 


&& 


Mpx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Dwe/mdb