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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 
423 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Discussion... 
main forecast challenges are wind and precipitation. When looking at 
the latest surface analysis...a ridge of high pressure extends 
through central Minnesota and east ND into S west mb. When comparing the 
models...the models remain in pretty good agreement overall...with a 
slower evolution of the early week system...but differ on strength 
and timing of quantitative precipitation forecast...so ended up using a model blend between the GFS 
and NAM for the winds and precipitation forecast. As far as temperatures...pretty 
much used the adjmavbc early on and the European model (ecmwf) for later periods. 


Surface high pressure moves east today...with S return flow setting 
up over the North Plains ahead of the next low pressure system. A 
tightening surface pressure gradient will aid in strengthening 
winds today...but at this time...it appears that the winds will 
remain below Wind Advisory criteria...so will not be issuing any 
headlines this morning. 


There is a slight chance that thunderstorms and rain could develop tonight in dvl area 
as a strong 850mb low level jet gets going. With 700mb temperatures prognosticated to be 
right around +12c along the international border...may not be a strong 
enough cap to prevent convection from breaking out overnight...thus 
kept 20 pop in forecast for part of dvl area tonight. 


Surface pressure gradient strengthens even more on sun and remains 
strong into Monday as the low pressure system starts moving across ND. 
Later shifts will need to monitor wind strength as may need wind 
advisories for both days. 


The low pressure system brings the next chance for precipitation into the dvl 
area on Sun night and with the slow east progression of the low...will 
need to keep probability of precipitation in the forecast into Wednesday. An active weather 
pattern continues into the latter part of the work week with a 
high pressure system quickly replaced by another low by Friday. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR sky and visibility today. Winds to gust to around 25 kts by 
afternoon. 


&& 


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
ND...none. 
Minnesota...none. 
&& 


$$ 
Ng