983 
fxus63 kpah 212244 
afdpah 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
544 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Discussion... 
/113 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008/ 
all models lift and open up an upper level disturbance/wave during 
the next 36-48 hours. Thus the soupier/unstable air to our south 
continues to more fully inundate the atmospheric column overtop 
the quadrant state...and this translates in a continuing good chance 
for precipitation...albeit not continuous. Obviously during the daytime 
diurnally induced convection will heighten peak probability of precipitation...at least 
until Saturday when the trough sort of washes out. 


After Saturday the interplay on the net sensible weather for US is 
going to be between the front to our north and Fay's approach from 
our south. The models continue to flip back and forth with 
Fay...with the general day-to-day consensus being that most of its 
moisture/effects look to still be held off just to our southeast. This 
will be at least in part influenced by the models shoving the 
front/trough on through by about Tuesday of next week...so we followed HPC 
lead and collaboratively diminished the probability of precipitation accordingly...going 
with a dry forecast in all but the far east by Tuesday on. We kept a 
small mention in the east to account for the influence of Fay and 
any lingering frontal passage/trough effects as it too sort of washes out on 
its passage. 


As for MOS we continued to tweak upwards for dew points like 
surrounding offices...at least near to medium range. A blend of 
MOS works into the collab pic/inherited forecast nicely for 
highs/lows. 


&& 


Aviation... 
scattered convection will need to be monitor first 6 hours of the 
00z taf cycle for kcgi and kpah...per latest radar trends. Farther 
east a weak cap is present...which should limit convective 
potential at kevv and kowb this evening. After midnight and into 
tomorrow...a persistent moist influx from the south and lift 
associated with an upper level trough across Missouri will mean a 
continued chance of scattered coverage convection. Will not hit too hard 
in the tafs after 06z due to uncertainty. Some MVFR to occasional IFR fog 
will be possible again tonight...especially kcgi and kpah. That should 
not last too much after 12z Friday as modest boundary layer mixing 
develops. Overall...temporary ceilings should be mostly VFR. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...none. 
MO...none. 
Illinois...none. 
In...none. 
&& 


$$