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fxus63 ksgf 072325 
afdsgf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO 
625 PM CDT sun Sep 7 2008 


..update to aviation... 


Discussion... 


Short term (tonight)... 


The region remains at the base of broad upper trough over Canada. 
The next shortwave of interest located over the northern rockies was 
riding around this trough. Surface frontogenesis will take place 
across the plains tonight in response to the approaching trough. 
The isentropic ascent we have seen the past couple of nights will 
develop farther north. Have maintained the highest rain chances 
from southeast Kansas into central Missouri overnight. The clouds 
and moist boundary layer will keep lows generally in the lower 60s 
and went a degree or two higher than guidance. 


Foster 


Long term 


This looks to be the start of a rather messy week with cold fronts 
expected to move through the Ozarks late Monday into Tuesday and 
then again on Thursday into the weekend. The models and numerical 
guidance has been trending the precipitation chances down for the 
Monday night frontal passage. Still think the models are under doing 
the precipitation and have kept chance probability of precipitation for the overnight hours 
as good moisture pooling ahead of the front and strong cold air 
advection in the wake of the front should provide the necessary lift 
to squeeze some rainfall our of the air. The cold air behind the 
front will make for cool and pleasant conditions for Tuesday and 
Wednesday with temperatures in the low 70s Tuesday and warming to 
around 80 on Wednesday. Because of the strength of the cold air some 
scattered severe storms can not be ruled out along the front as it 
pushes through the region. 


Southwest flow makes a brief appearance Thursday ahead of the second 
front as a strong upper level low/wave digs south out of the 
Canadian rockies. This should allow temperatures to climb back to 
near normal and bring the next chance of rainfall and the 
possibility of some severe weather as well as the front moves through. 


If thats not enough...both the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS are now showing 
almost an identical solution for Hurricane Ike. This would bring Ike 
on shore very near Galveston. An strong upper level wave then 
latches on to Ike and drags it across Arkansas and much of Missouri 
before heading towards the New England states. 


Hatch 




&& 


Aviation... 


For the 00z taf package...VFR conditions are expected for the next 
24 hours. Low level boundary that has been just to the south of 
the aerodromes the past few days will surge northward tonight and 
Monday morning. Rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will focus north of this front across 
northern KS/MO. This boundary will quickly return to the south and 
approach jln/sgf late Monday afternoon. Have not yet included 
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain just yet and will wait for 00z guidance before trying to 
time the onset of rainfall. IFR looks possible just beyond the taf 
cycle and into much of Monday night. 


Gagan 


&& 


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$