093 
fxus63 keax 070743 
afdeax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
243 am CDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Discussion... 


Upper low has shifted into eastern NE with a shortwave trough extending 
south into central OK. The upper trough along with a weak cold front in 
eastern Kansas was triggering scattered rain shower in eastern Kansas and western MO. Coverage has been 
on a gradual decrease throughout the night as a good flow of 800 mb 
moisture being intercepted by convective complex in Arkansas. In 
addition...upper forcing from upper trough was rather weak. 


As a result...have lowered probability of precipitation for the western grids this morning but 
keep probability of precipitation rather high for the eastern and northestern grids...as a shortwave in 
northestern Oklahoma pivots NE into central MO. Have gradually ended or 
lowered probability of precipitation from west to east this afternoon and tonight as the weak cold 
front and upper trough progresses through MO. 


Decreasing clouds are expected from west to east late this afternoon and 
tonight. Diminishing winds and clear skies may lead to at least patchy 
fog late tonight for the extreme northwestern grids. 


Otherwise...cooling behind the front is minor and with weak zonal 
flow developing...pleasant autumn temperatures expected for the rest 
of the work week. 


Db 


&& 


Aviation... 


For the 06z tafs...a meridional oriented line of showers will 
rotate into the Kansas/Missouri border region over the next couple 
of hours bringing periodic showers to all the terminals. Up stream 
ceiling observations indicate that MVFR ceilings should prevail 
along with the showers through sunrise. Ceilings should lift behind 
the band of showers...but only for a little while as wrap around 
showers move in for the later half of the morning hours on the back 
side of the circulation. Ceilings will then improve for the afternoon 
hours as the system moves farther east. A northwest wind will 
prevail through the daylight hours and into the night. 


Cutter 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Kansas...none. 
$$