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fxus64 klix 072025 
afdlix 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la 
325 PM CDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Short term... 
there are no major concerns in the short term with generally zonal 
flow aloft and weak high pressure over the area. Only isolated 
thunderstorms are expected across most of the area for the next 
few days with temperatures near or just above climatology. 25 


Long term... 
the primary concern will be the track of Hurricane Ike. The 
models seem to be coming more to a consensus of pushing Ike toward 
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico late this week. Ike should be 
steered to the west or west-northwest across Cuba the next few 
days by a middle-level ridge. The trough moving across the central 
and eastern states currently is expected to slide past the 
storm and not pick it up...thus letting Ike move toward the 
northwestern Gulf. If this holds true...Ike will be passing south 
of Louisiana Friday. However Ike would pass close enough to cause 
high winds and seas across our Gulf coastal waters and cause 
coastal flooding across most of our coastal areas...including 
around lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas. 25 


Aviation... 
multi-level cloud cover will generally decrease over the region 
after 00z. With radiational cooling...expect patchy...light fog to 
develop by morning. Generally MVFR fog at msy...btr... gpt...and 
mcb. Mcb may develop LIFR conditions in dense fog briefly tomorrow 
morning per NGM solution. Did not use that solution for this 
cycle. 47 


Marine... 
generally light southeast to east flow is expected across the area 
through Tuesday...then winds becoming more northeast to east. The 
advance of Hurricane Ike from Cuba into the central Gulf of Mexico 
will increase winds and seas over the coastal waters by 12z 
Wednesday. The current track will bring Ike into the eastern half of 
the Gulf by Thursday and just south of Louisiana by Friday. 47 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mcb 67 91 70 90 / 10 20 20 30 
btr 69 92 71 91 / 10 20 10 20 
msy 74 91 75 90 / 10 20 10 20 
gpt 72 90 72 90 / 10 20 10 20 


&& 


Lix watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
GM...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$