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fxus64 klix 301010 cca 
afdlix 


Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service New Orleans la 
507 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Short term... 
main concerns are impacts from the approach of now major Hurricane 
Gustav. Maximum sustained winds have increased rapidly overnight 
and just increased to 115 miles per hour. The forecast track remains nearly 
identical to the previous two forecast packages except landfall is 
a bit later. 


Today will be pretty much dry except for some very isolated mainly 
afternoon showers...perhaps a thunderstorm over some coastal 
areas. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and absence of rain 
will push temperatures up to the lower to middle 90s again. 


Moisture will increase just enough on Sunday for at least a low 
chance of showers and thunderstorms with daytime heating. 


Sunday night...outer rain bands and tropical storm force winds are 
expected to move across the coastal waters and possibly some near 
shore areas of extreme southeast Louisiana after midnight. If the 
current forecast track and timing continues...a Hurricane Watch 
will be required for a portion of our forecast area either tonight 
or Sunday morning. 22 


Long term... 
current NHC forecast for Gustav indicates a major category 3 
hurricane will make landfall...moving from southeast to 
northwest...along the south central Louisiana coast Monday night. 
The most severe hurricane conditions are likely to occur over the 
far southwest portion of the forecast area with mainly tropical 
storm conditions over the far north and east. Remember that 
Gustav could become a large hurricane and track errors are still 
possible this far in advance. 


Gustav is expected to really slow down as it moves inland across 
southwest Louisiana Tuesday into Wednesday. Lingering gusty winds 
and heavy rain bands are likely to affect much of the area at 
least into Wednesday...then slow improvement with more normal 
scattered convection expected Thursday and Friday. 22 


&& 


Aviation... 
patchy fog will continue to bring MVFR visibilities to the terminals 
through around 13-14z this morning. The inversion allowing for this 
fog formation will begin to break around this time...allowing for a 
return to VFR conditions. These VFR conditions should persist 
through the day as a broad ridge of high pressure remains parked 
over the Gulf south. Another inversion should develop 
tonight...allowing for additional fog formation at all of the 
terminals. 32 


Marine... 
Hurricane Gustav should begin to impact the coastal waters on 
Sunday...as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. An increasing pressure 
gradient between a ridge over the Gulf south and the approaching 
hurricane will allow for Small Craft Advisory winds to develop by 
Sunday afternoon. Seas will also increase on Sunday as swells 
emanating from the system begin to move into the coastal waters. 
The hurricane is then expected to impact the coastal waters as a 
major hurricane Monday through Wednesday. Areas west of the river 
will see the strongest winds and highest seas from this hurricane. 
32 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mcb 93 72 90 73 / 10 10 30 30 
btr 95 74 92 74 / 10 10 30 30 
msy 93 77 90 76 / 10 10 30 50 
gpt 92 74 90 76 / 20 10 30 50 


&& 


Lix watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...Small Craft Advisory from 7 am to 7 PM CDT Sunday for laz066. 


GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 am to 7 PM CDT Sunday for gmz550-555- 
570-575. 


MS...none. 
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 am to 7 PM CDT Sunday for gmz555-570- 
575. 


&& 


$$