316 
fxus61 kmhx 282039 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
439 PM EDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Synopsis... 
broad low pressure will affect the area through Saturday. A cold 
front will move into the area during Sunday and then move south of 
the area Sunday night. High pressure from the north will build into 
the area early to middle next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/... 
warm/moist airmass over area combining with diffluent flow aloft 
between upper ridge axis just offshore and inland troughing to produce 
mostly scattered showers and tsms across the area this afternoon. Mhx vwp and 
forecast soundings still show decent low level directional shear 
with southeast flow at surface veering SW through h95...though velocities are 
not very significant. This combined with heating of moist airmass in 
place will keep a small threat of very isolated tornadoes through early 
evening. Other threat will be locally heavy rain with precipitable waters  
remaining around 2 inches in tropical airmass. Suspect activity will 
then diminish some through evening with loss of heating...but with 
weak surface boundary lingering near the area in addition to middle and upper 
troughing west of area will keep in some probability of precipitation through the 
night...highest NE where deeper moisture and best model agreement of 
measurable precipitation noted. With light winds and abundant moisture have 
added fog to grids after midnite. Lows muggy in the l70s. 




&& 


Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday night/... 
surface pattern expected to consist of weak...broad low pressure or at 
least troughing Friday through Sat night while an upper low west of area 
dampens and drifts east towards the area. This pattern will keep a 
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area...especially 
during the afternoon and evenings with heating. A robust middle to upper 
trough axis extending S from eastern Canada and the NE states is 
expected to swing east of the area during sun. The associated cold 
front will also move through the area...though the model consensus is 
that the wind shift to NE will occur early sun but the deep dry air 
wont really fully advect into the area until Sun night. Have thus 
also gone low chance probability of precipitation sun for potential front/seabreeze 
convergence...and end probability of precipitation rather abruptly by Sun night as we enter 
the anticipated fair weather pattern for Labor Day. Highs mostly u80s 
with lows around 70 inland through period...though slightly cooler in Post 
frontal regime Sun night. High/low temperatures near the coast a category 
cooler/warmer or so per usual. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Thursday/... 
looks like a decent stretch of weather in the long term as dry air 
filters into the region around deep high pressure building in from the 
NW/N. Not much change to long term grids which advertise dry weather and 
near to slightly above normal temperatures. Too early to tell on impacts 
from the myriad of tropical systems NHC is watching...including 
recently upgraded ts Hanna NE of Leeward Islands...but at the very 
least we will likely see increased threat of rip currents from the 
associated swell energy early to middle next week. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
VFR prevailing this evening except for local MVFR/IFR in shra/tsra. 
With moist low levels...clear skies and light winds overnight expect 
widespread period of LIFR conditions overnight all taf sites. Conditions 
improving to VFR Friday morning with scattered convective activity again Friday 
afternoon but less coverage expected than past couple of days. 


IFR likely again Friday night into early Sat morning...with scattered 
convective activity Sat afternoon into sun ahead of front. Strong high 
pressure building in behind front should produce VFR Sun night through 
Tuesday. 


&& 


Marine... 
seas have come up to 6 feet at waverider buoy 2 east of Duck with ww3 
verifying well. Seas only 5 feet at Diamond and not expected to 
increase this evening...thus have dropped Small Craft Advisory S of hat. Continued 
Small Craft Advisory north of hat and extended until 03z with winds and seas expected to 
diminish during evening. Pressure gradient expected to relax Friday-Sat with 
warm front moving north of area and not much gradient ahead of approaching 
cold front. Decent NE surge expect behind front late sun into 
Monday...then diminishing Tuesday. Ww3 indicates seas near 6 feet over northern 
and central waters Monday with sustained period of 15-20 knots winds. 


Rip currents... 
southeast swell around 11 seconds combined with a high astronomical tide 
cycle will bring a moderate rip current risk to area beaches on Friday. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for amz150- 
152. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...mw 
near term...mw 
short term...mw 
long term...mw 
aviation...jbm 
marine...jbm