548 
fxus62 kmhx 300701 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
301 am EDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Synopsis... 
humid conditions will linger a few more days over the area...but 
dry air will move into the area behind a cold front early Monday. 
High pressure will dominate the middle Atlantic through the majority 
of the work week...keeping rain chances at a minimal. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
a few thunderstorms and rain developed overnight...but for the most part conditions 
were dry. With similar conditions as yesterday with high 
dew point...marginal instability...could see some scattered thunderstorms and rain this 
after. Not looking at any particular source of lift outside of sea 
breeze and weak convergence due to the linger low inland. With 
poor dynamics don't anticipate severe storms...but with convective available potential energy around 
2k could see some strong storms with heavy rain. Storm motions 
again slow today...so could see some localized high rainfall 
totals. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through 6 PM Sunday/... 
not much change tonight...and with continued warm air advection and high moisture 
content with pw~2" can't rule out isolate thunderstorms and rain and patchy fog. The 
low that has been lingering inland over the last couple days will 
lift NE of the area sun...turning winds to the NE. Not looking at 
any sig airmass change...just more of a wind shift. 
Meanwhile...the middle level trough will swing through...and though not 
very potent it could provide enough dynamics combined with sea 
breeze and lingering high precipitable water values to trigger scattered convection once 
again. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Friday/... 
a strong surface high will build in from the north sun...driving some 
drier air into the region sun nt. This will erode the showers and 
clouds by Monday morning. A deep cutoff low off of Nova Scotia will 
block the high from moving east off the coast...which will keep it 
over the middle Atlantic for the better part of next week. This will 
re-enforce the dry air over the region...removing the chance for 
rain over the area. The thicknesses will not drop sig with the 
high...and with mostly sunny skies will see temperatures gradually warm 
through late week. The later part of the forecast will be dependant on 
the track of ts Hanna...so for now will continue with trends of 
near normal conditions with a schc of rain on Friday. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
based on latest 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery and surface 
observations...low ceilings and visibilities are pretty much remaining 
north and west of our County Warning Area. Ewn/pgv currently VFR with oaj and isolated 
in the MVFR range in fog. With clear skies and light winds...still 
expect a period of IFR/LIFR visibilities and some ceilings in stratus 
during the early morning hours today before dissipating with 
improving conditions by mid-morning. MOS guidance from both the 
GFS and NAM indicate another bout of low visibilities toward morning on 
Sunday. 


Will be enough moisture near and just north of cold front...which 
pushes through on Sunday to see some scattered convection. Drier air and 
VFR conditions are expected rest of forecast period. 


&& 


Marine... 
same basic forecast scenario as past few days. Generally S/south-southwest 
winds will continue at 10 to 15 knots with seas generally 2 to 4 
feet through Sunday as high pressure remains well offshore with weak 
low pressure to our north. By Sunday night...swell generated from 
tropical cyclone Hanna will start to affect the coastal waters 
raising combined seas to Small Craft Advisory criteria during Sunday night and 
continuing through Tuesday. Questionable forecast beyond Tuesday due 
to uncertainties in both the track of Hanna...strength of surface low 
to our north and future course of strong North Atlantic low. 


Given long period swell energy and above normal astronomical 
tides...have opted to increase rip current threat to moderate over 
Rodanthe to Ocracoke Island. Remainder of area beaches will remain 
in the low range. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...sj 
near term...sj 
short term...sj 
long term...sj 
aviation...ctc 
marine...ctc