495 
fxus62 kmhx 080251 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
1051 PM EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
a weak frontal boundary over the coastal plains will linger 
through Monday. Weak high pressure will build over the area 
Tuesday before a cold front drops into the region from the north 
Wednesday and stalls to our south Thursday through late week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/... 
quick update to keep schc mainly near coast through morning with 
lingering frontal boundary and high dewpoints/moderate 
instability...and support from 00z NAM. 


Previous discussion... 
weak surface boundary draped zonally across the County Warning Area is combining with 
leftover daytime instability to spark a few thunderstorms this 
evening...and have extended probability of precipitation a couple hours accordingly. Sref 
precipitation probabilities has this represented fairly well...and 
diminishes the convective potential inland steadily through 
midnite with loss of heating. However...sref and other model 
consensus is showing some light quantitative precipitation forecast near the central obx and 
adjacent coastal waters overnight into early Monday...associated with 
low level confluence between a weak high just off the Virginia/NC border 
and another Bermuda type ridge axis further offshore...so have 
added a slight chance there. Agree with previous forecast keeping 
patchy fog wording with light winds/mclear skies...and moist bl. 
Temperatures look fine a few degrees either side of 70. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Monday morning through Tuesday night/... 
weak boundary to linger across the coastal plains region on Monday 
and with forecast soundings indicating lifted indice's down around minus 6 and 
precipitation water about 1.6 inches...cannot rule out some widely 
scattered afternoon showers/tstms. Another warm day for early 
September with maxes approaching 90. Weak ridge of high pressure to 
build over the County Warning Area Tuesday...but with forecast soundings still showing 
high instability/moisture with a deeper S/SW flow...will have chance 
probability of precipitation across most of the area again. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/... 
wetter scenario setting up for middle through late week. Upper trough 
currently over the upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes region 
will flatten out by Tuesday before shapening again over the eastern US 
by the weekend. A frontal boundary will move into the region from 
the north early Wednesday and gradually stall south of the area 
Thursday through late week. Some moisture will get drawn into the 
County Warning Area from the east around strong high pressure to the north and around 
outer periphery of Ike. Will have the highest probability of precipitation on Wednesday 
and will continue high chance probability of precipitation into Thursday with lower chances 
into the weekend. Temperatures will remain at or just above 
climatological normals. 


&& 


Aviation /03z Monday through Friday/... 
widely scattered thunderstorms should dissipate by 03z due to loss 
of heating and lack of significant upper support. All signals 
pointing toward another episode of LIFR/IFR conditions after 
midnight in fog and low clouds. Low level airmass remains moist 
and excellent radiational cooling will occur again as skies clear 
and winds decouple. After fog/low clouds burn off Monday morning 
expecting mainly VFR conditions outside of isolated 
afternoon/evening thunderstorms which should develop again along 
local sea breezes. 


A more substantial cold front will move through the region with deep 
convection Wednesday. Could see some lingering precipitation into 
Friday as the front stalls just to southeast of the region. 


&& 


Marine... 
swell from powerful Hurricane Ike continues to move into the NC 
waters with 5-7 foot seas and periods of 13-15 seconds producing 
large breakers in the surf and a continuation of the high surf 
advisory. Winds will remain light through Tuesday with the swell 
from Ike dissipating late Monday when Ike begins to move into the 
Gulf of Mexico. The swell will contribute to a high risk for 
dangerous rip currents and hazardous waves in the inlets. The Small 
Craft Advisory for the central waters will continue for at least 1 
more forecast cycle. 


A front will sink S on Wednesday after...with breezy NE winds behind it. 
Have kept winds below Small Craft Advisory since it looks like the strength of the 
front is somewhat limited as it starts to stall just off the coast 
Wednesday nt. The NE flow will continue through Friday...then push back north as 
a warm front. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...high surf advisory until 4 am EDT Monday for ncz095-103-104. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Monday for amz152-154-156. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...ctc/jme 
near term...mw 
short term...ctc 
long term...ctc 
aviation...jme/sj 
marine...jme/sj