937 
fxus62 kmhx 231148 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
650 am EST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Synopsis... 
low pressure will move NE along the coast today...then lift north of 
the area tonight. High pressure will build over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. 
A cold front will approach from the west Wednesday night and move across 
the area later Thursday. Low pressure will develop along the front offshore 
of the coast Thursday night and deepen as it lifts north Friday. High 
pressure builds into the area next weekend. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
as of 6 am Monday...low pressure to the S will lift north/NE and is 
expected to move along or poss just inland of the obx later today. 
Deeper moisture and best lift has shifted to the north and east however 
with the low expected to track across the region still expect chance to 
likely probability of precipitation most of the day. Both NAM/GFS show some weak instability 
spreading onshore ahead of low so added isolated thunderstorms and rain for imd CST 
today. Temperatures tricky as depends on how far inland southeast to S winds 
develop with low track along the CST. Inland areas will keep NE 
winds and shld stay in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Along the beaches 
appears will see period of southeast to S winds with temperatures 65 to 70. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Wednesday/... 
as of 145 am Monday...appears bulk of the measurable rain will be 
lifting NE of region by around 00z this evening. Low levels will 
remain saturated so maintained previous forecast of areas of drizzle/fog 
overnight. Kept some drizzle into Tuesday morning per saturated low 
levels...later shifts may have to extend drizzle out into Tuesday night. 
Went closer to NAM for temperatures as expect overcast skies with moisture 
trapped below inversion...highs mainly 55 to 60. Dont see many 
break in clouds through Wednesday as low clouds will linger into at least 
first part of Wednesday then expect more middle level clouds later Wednesday with 
upper trf approaching from the west. Added slight pop imd CST late Wednesday 
afternoon per models showing some light quantitative precipitation forecast. With clouds think highs Wednesday 
will be mainly in the lower 60s. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
as of 230 PM Sunday...a solution closer to the operational European model (ecmwf) 
continues to be preferred for the system to affect the area on 
Thanksgiving. A southern stream surface low should pass close enough to 
the coast to provide the area with decent precipitation chances (esp near the 
coast) later Wednesday night and through Thanksgiving. This system should 
move out fairly quickly as a strong northern stream short wave 
follows closely on its heels Thursday night. Development of a deep East 
Coast trough signals dry and cool weather going into next weekend. 


&& 


Aviation /08z Monday through Friday/... 
as of 245 am Monday...consensus of all the aviation guidance is 
for primarily LIFR/IFR conditions through Tuesday and possibly 
into Wednesday. Widespread rainfall this morning will tend to 
taper off to light drizzle by afternoon. Low clouds will remain as 
low level remain saturated in north/NE flow. At times ceilings may 
rise to MVFR but but will forecast primarily IFR through the 
period. By Wednesday another coastal low will develop and showers will 
move back into the region late and into Thursday...followed by a strong 
cold front Friday. 


&& 


Marine... 
as of 245 am Monday...will continue advisories for the southern 
waters through 21z as wave watch is running low vs observed 
conditions. The Swan holds on to 6 feet seas south of Ocracoke Inlet 
through this afternoon. The latest Swan model run builds seas 
back to 6+ feet Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday night but would like to 
see another model run before buying into this so will keep 
conditions below advisory levels as forecast Tuesday. 


Developing low pressure will track NE along or just inland from 
the NC coast today...then move NE of the waters tonight. High 
pressure will build over the waters Tuesday into Wednesday. The 
GFS appears too fast moving the low through the area so will use 
the NAM-12 which briefly turns winds around to the south today. 
Looks like winds speeds peaked Sunday evening with all of the wind 
guidance forecasting winds 20 knots or less through Thursday. Another 
low is forecast to develop off the NC coast Wednesday night and 
and Thursday as a strong cold front moves through the area. Strong Small Craft Advisory 
conditions are certain to develop behind the front Thursday night 
and Friday as very cold air pours into the region. The forecast 
for Tuesday night through Wednesday night will have conditions 
below advisory levels but as noted above the latest wave guidance 
is indicating that seas may reach 6 feet. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EST Tuesday for amz150-152-154. 
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for amz156- 
158. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...rf 
near term...rf 
short term...rf 
long term...btc 
aviation...jme 
marine...jme