666 
fxus62 kmhx 070120 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
915 PM EDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Synopsis... 
a strong reinforcing cold front will cross the area tonight 
with strong high pressure building over the region through 
Wednesday. Low pressure will approach from the southwest 
Wednesday night and bring increasing prospects for rain 
to the area Thursday through Friday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/... 
no update planned. Dry cold front pushing S over area this 
evening...main feature is some stronger north-NE winds along coast. Forecast 
on track. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday/... 
strong high pressure will build into the region from the north Tuesday and 
slide offshore Wednesday. Cold air advection continues Tuesday and highs will generally 
be in the l/m70s. With high centered over the region Tuesday night 
expect good radiational cooling and light wind allowing temperatures to 
fall into the u40s/l50s inland to around 60 coastside. Return flow 
develops Wednesday with high offshore but clouds will begin to increase 
from the SW in the afternoon as a storm system approaches. This 
will prevent maximum heating and maximum temperatures expected in the M/u70. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/... 
confidence still poor in progression of next trough of low pressure. 
Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) develop a cutoff low Wednesday night and Thursday across 
the southeast. However the GFS is more progressive absorbing the low back 
into the southwesterly flow aloft by Friday night with weak high pressure building 
in from the east over the weekend. The European model (ecmwf)...which has been the 
preferred model over the past several days...keeps the cutoff low 
across the southeast with a Rex block developing as an upper ridge builds 
across the rest of the East Coast. The European model (ecmwf) solution continues to 
bring moist Ely flow across the region with surface high pressure ridging 
S along the East Coast setting up a potential cad event. With such 
low confidence made minimal changes to the extended grids keeping 
high chance probability of precipitation Thursday through Friday and only slight chance over the 
weekend. Temperatures look to be near normal through the period. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Monday through Saturday/... 
backdoor front dropping south through the area this evening. Light 
and variable winds will become light northerly after midnight once 
the front drops south of the area. Still looks like some MVFR 
conditons possible in the predawn hours. 




VFR expected Tuesday into Wednesday as the high builds over the region. 
Starting Wednesday night and continue into the weekend will have at least scattered 
precipitation over the area as low pressure approaches and slowly moves across. 
Will likely see periods of MVFR and some IFR will be poss. 


&& 


Marine... 
based on latest coastal/buoy observations I will bump up winds north 
of Ocracoke and on the sounds as winds pick up just ahead of and 
behind the backdoor front. No other changes needed...including 
headlines. 


Models continue to differ with next approaching upper/surface low. GFS continues 
to be more progressive than preferred slower emcwf solution. Will 
have a period of decent southeast winds Thursday into Friday that could build 
seas close to Small Craft Advisory levels espcly central/southern waters. Low/front expected 
to drift across Friday and continue near region into Sat. Went close to 
emcwf for wind direction with Erly winds and seas mainly 3 to 5 feet Friday 
into Sat. 




&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 5 am to 11 am EDT Tuesday for amz135. 
Small Craft Advisory from 5 am to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for amz150- 
152-154-156. 
Small Craft Advisory from 8 am to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for amz158. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...sk 
near term...jbm 
short term...sk 
long term...sk 
aviation...hsa/rf 
marine...hsa/rf