368 
fxus62 kilm 022330 
afdilm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington NC 
630 PM EST Tuesday Dec 2 2008 


Synopsis... 
cool and dry weather will continue as high pressure moves across 
the area tonight through Wednesday. A brief warm up into the 60s 
will follow on Thursday. Temperatures thereafter will stay mainly 
below normal through the upcoming weekend and into early next week 
as a series of cold fronts move across the eastern Carolinas...one 
on Thursday night and one on Saturday night. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
as of 3 PM Tuesday...surface high pressure will drift across the 
area tonight as the progressive 500mb trough moves offshore. This 
is a recipe for another very cold morning with ideal radiational 
conditions. Looks like middle 20s in the sheltered valleys inland 
and near freezing along the coast. Dewpoint depressions should be 
sufficient to preclude any mention of fog. 


&& 


Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/... 
as of 3 PM Tuesday...period starts out with cool and dry high 
pressure centered directly overhead. High will linger over the 
eastern Carolinas for much of Wednesday before migrating offshore 
overnight. Skies will be mainly clear during this period with 
continued below normal temperatures...generally middle 50s most places or 
between 5 and 10 degrees below climatology. Brief warm up Thursday as 
return flow develops ahead of next cold frontal passage which is set for 
Thursday night. Guidance in good accord with timing of front and 
how dry it is. Model cross sections and soundings show very 
limited and relatively shallow moisture with precipitable water values of under an 
inch. Have kept going forecast of isolated showers for the 
Thursday overnight hours with only a couple hundredths of an inch 
quantitative precipitation forecast. Thickness values much to high for snow. Increased cloud cover 
and mixing behind the front will help keep min temperatures up around 
climatology...upper 30s inland to lower 40s near the coast. Expect 
overcast skies by morning with ceilings from 3.5 to 5 kft. Front 
should move offshore around midnight Thursday night. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Tuesday/... 
as of 3 PM Tuesday...large 1035mb high will be building in on 
Friday bringing yet another day of much below normal temperatures despite 
a fair amount of sunshine. The high will move over the southeast 
on Saturday while downsloping middle level flow continues. Highs both 
days in the low 50s. A moisture starved clipper will cut to our 
north Sat night into Sunday. Sunday high temperature forecast a little 
muddled by this feature as weak warm air advection may push highs into middle 50s 
before cold air advection takes back over behind the system. Strong surface ridge 
builds in Monday as main trough lifts out to the NE. Guidance 
again shows highs in the middle 50s but may be a little too mild as 
ll winds remain nearly. Another trough digs in for Tuesday possibly 
preceded by enough warm and moist advection for warmer temperatures and 
precipitation chances. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
clear skies and calm winds expected overnight as high pressure 
builds in from the west. Dew point depressions should be large 
enough to keep fog from forming. The center of high pressure will 
be directly overhead on Wednesday. Light and variable winds in the 
morning will gradually shift into the south as high pressure 
slides off the coast. Along the coast...winds will be more 
southeasterly during the afternoon with a slight resultant sea 
breeze component. 


Outlook through Friday...a slight chance of showers Thursday 
afternoon with a weak cold front...otherwise VFR through Friday with 
a slight chance of precipitation Saturday. 


&& 


Marine... 
near term /through tonight/... 
as of 3 PM Tuesday...buoy observations showing basically 10 knots 
across all waters with a couple of 12 knots showing up at ocpn7 
and 41013. With high pressure moving overhead tonight...will use 
around 10 knots for all waters. Seas are running between two and 
three feet and should continue to do so overnight. 


Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/... 
as of 3 PM Tuesday...light winds with seas generally 2 feet or less 
for Wednesday and into Thursday morning as broad cool high 
pressure moves across the waters. Winds and seas pick up modestly 
Thursday afternoon and evening as SW flow increases ahead of next 
cold front. Expect SW winds of 10 to 15 kts with seas of 2 to 3 
feet. Cold surge following frontal passage will kick seas up to 3 to 5 feet well 
offshore. Waters closer to shore will be more like 2 to 3 feet due 
to offshore flow. Expect front to move across the waters beginning 
around midnight Thursday night. 


Long term /Friday through Sunday/... 
as of 3 PM Tuesday...pinched gradient in a strong cold air advection regime 
could sponsor scec headlines on account of both wind and waves to 
start the period. However as high starts to build in from the northwest 
conditions should show a definite improving trend. Improving trend 
continues on Saturday as the surface ridge builds in across the 
Carolinas and coastal waters. Winds may even go variable for a 
very brief time Saturday night as the high dissipates. This light 
flow will quickly be replaced by northwest winds behind another 
cold front. The gradient will increase again behind the front in 
the cold air advection regime Sunday. 


&& 


Ilm watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...none. 
NC...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...rek 
near term...shk 
short term...rek 
long term...mbb 
aviation...dl/heden