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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE 
621 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Aviation...12z taf. Quiet weather expected during this taf 
period...with VFR conditions. Main forecast concern for this taf 
lies with the winds. Southerly flow will continue...but strengthening 
low pressure across the High Plains will help to tighten the pressure 
gradient...with speeds increasing to 15 to 25 miles per hour by this 
afternoon. Speeds will taper off a bit this 
evening/overnight...but will remain near 15 miles per hour. 




&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 530 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2008/ 


Discussion...upper level pattern depicts a ridge sliding toward 
the Mississippi Valley today as a trough moves into the West Coast 
region. Lee trough developing a little stronger today as surface 
high slides east. 


First challenge will be chances of precipitation to 
the southwest and south. Instability increases as the day wears on 
and Theta advection increases tonight along with consistently 
forecast shortwave trough approaching from the southwest. 
Consistently forecast shortwave will give a slight chance of 
precipitation to the south and southwest despite the less than 
favorable position of the low- level jet. Areas to the north may 
not have enough moisture to support precipitation given divergent 
850 mb level in tail of the low- level jet. Wind should be 
stronger today as Lee trough becomes more pronounced and surface 
high slides east along with deep mixing bringing down even 
stronger wind speeds than yesterday. 


Big story for Sunday will be wind speeds. Deep mixing will bring 
down yet stronger wind speeds than Saturday...flirting with Wind 
Advisory in the west. Not much at all to support precipitation. 


For Monday...still looks windy for Monday with good mixing in 
advance of next shortwave trough and attendant cold front. Kept 
chances for precipitation the same as previous forecast...however 
the 06z GFS suggests that precipitation may make it a little 
farther to the southeast. Would like to see more consistency 
before any shifts father. 


With good mixing comes seasonably warm daytime temperatures and 
made only minor tweaks to temperatures in general. 


No changes made after Monday night. 


&& 


Gid watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$