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fxus63 kgld 231739 
afdgld 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas 
1039 am MST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Discussion... 
142 am MST Monday Nov 23 2009 


A shortwave trough over the northern rockies was digging southeast 
toward the central rockies early this morning. Widespread dense fog 
should begin to erode across the far eastern zones as large scale 
forcing for ascent spreads downstream across the region with 
approaching middle/upper trough. Precipitation should begin to develop 
across eastern Colorado early this morning spreading rapidly east 
through the day. A rain/snow transition area is anticipated near 
Highway 83 advancing slowly east through the afternoon/early 
evening. Generally followed the sref/GFS with placement of 500 mb trough 
which was further north and east when compared to the NAM. A period 
of strong winds is expected to impact the southwest zones, generally 
west of the Colorado state line where steep low level lapse rates/low 
level cold air advection will be juxtaposed with strong large scale forcing for 
subsidence this afternoon from 18-23z. Further east, light mixed 
precipitation is anticipated behind frontal passage and raised probability of precipitation along the 
I-70 corridor and points north and east. Due to the progressive 
nature of the trough, only minor accumulations around an inch or two 
are anticipated before precipitation ends overnight. 


A short wave ridge will return to the High Plains on Tuesday leading to 
seasonable temperatures in the middle/upper 40s. A clipper system will 
dig into the upper Mississippi Valley area on Wednesday driving a cold 
front south across the area on Wednesday with temperatures holding in the 
40s. 


Days 4 through 7...no changes. 


McGuire 
&& 


Aviation... 
1038 am MST Monday Nov 23 2009 
for the 18z tafs... complicated taf period as precipitation and 
higher winds are beginning to kick in at the beginning of the 
period. Kglds winds will continue to increase through early 
afternoon with northwest winds 25-35knots and snow possibly rain/snow mix will 
persist through much of the afternoon. If the precipitation. Falls as 
mostly snow than visbys could be reduced this afternoon with blowing 
snow. Same story for kmck as the fog begins to dissipate out 
east..precip. Will likely be rain/snow mix through much of the afternoon 
with a transition to snow after sunset. Blowing snow could impact 
visbys at kmck also if temperatures. Drop and the phase transition is sped 
up. Quick storm system should exit the area from west to east by 
early morning. 


Kj 
&& 


Gld watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
NE...none. 
Colorado...Wind Advisory until 4 PM MST this afternoon for coz091-092. 


&& 


$$