370 
fxus63 koax 070742 
afdoax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE 
242 am CDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Discussion... 


Deformation zone continues to move across the County Warning Area this morning as 
long wave upper level trough axis extends through the Central Plains. This 
def zone has been producing widespread showers through the overnight 
hours and should continue to spread north and east through the 
morning hours. A few patches of isolated thunder have been 
observed in the east where radar returns look more convective in 
nature. The convective areas are ahead of the surface cold front which has 
been quickly progressing southeastward across the County Warning Area. At the current 
speed...front should be through much of the forecast area by 12z. 


As upper trough continues eastward this morning...precipitation should come to an 
end from west to east fairly rapidly. Will move all precipitation out of area 
by 18z. Strong subsidence moves in this afternoon and skies are 
expected to clear out and gusty nwrly winds should begin to subside. A 
weak surface ridge axis is forecast to move across the County Warning Area near 12z Wednesday 
so have added some patchy fog into the forecast with wet ground 
from recent rains contributing to rich low level moisture. Overnight 
lows should bottom out in the upper 30s to low 40s. 


Upper level flow becomes zonal on Wednesday and continues through 
early Thursday. Dry and mild days are expected across the 
Central Plains while a Pacific trough digs across the western Continental U.S. 
With Lee side low developing across Colorado by Thursday. This 
will push a warm front through the area late Thursday. Will not change 
much in the forecast as best chance for showers and thunderstorms 
will be to our north on Thursday night along and north of the 
warm front in strong baroclinic zone.Temperatures overall should 
remain near seasonal. No changes were made to the extended period. 


&& 


Aviation... 


For taf sites koma/klnk/kofk through 08/06z. 


Cold front moving across eastern Nebraska will bring gusty north-northwesterly surface winds to 
taf sites through 21-23z before winds decrease. Isolated thunderstorms can be 
expected ahead of the front early this morning and showers will be 
widespread behind it. Ceilings/visibilities will occasionally drop into MVFR range in 
showers...generally at klnk and koma through 12z...and could briefly 
drop into IFR category...especially at koma. VFR ceilings at kofk should clear 
out by 15z and ceilings should improve to VFR at klnk/koma by 12-13z 
before clearing out by 15-17z. Clear skies and light and variable winds 
expected by 08/06z. 
&& 


Oax watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Iowa...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Griffis/chermok