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fxus63 kgid 212246 
afdgid 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE 
546 PM CDT sun Mar 21 2010 


Aviation...00z taf. VFR conditions are expected through the taf 
period. Light and variable winds will transition southerly and 
increase on Monday ahead of a surface low pushine east onto the 
plains. High VFR clouds will increase Monday and visibilities will remain 
unrestricted while dry conditions prevail. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 401 PM CDT sun Mar 21 2010/ 


Short term...tonight through 12z Tuesday. Main forecast concerns 
will be sky cover and temperatures. 


Current surface analysis has a ridge of high pressure across the 
forecast area. Winds are light and skies are mainly sunny. Satellite 
shows a few cirrus moving into the western part of the region. 


The surface high is expected to drift to the southeast tonight and 
winds will turn to the southwest. Temperatures will be somewhat of a 
challenge for Monday. Warm advection increases and with winds from 
the south/southwest there should be some warming expected. The 
problem is that there will be some cirrus across the area and 
depending on how dense it is and how much sun gets through the 
clouds will have a big affect on how much mixing there and and 
therefore how warm it will get. Expect that the cirrus will keep the 
temperatures a bit cooler than full potential...but should still get 
into the 60s for most locations. 


The dry mild weather continues into Monday night. Through the 
evening there is still warm advection aloft and winds turn towards 
the west ahead of an approaching cold front. The front moves into 
the area late Monday night but other than increasing clouds late 
Monday night and winds turning to the northwest there is little to 
note as the front moves through. 


Long term...12z Tuesday through Sunday. Main challenge will be 
two separate waves occurring Tuesday night into Wednesday...and 
another coming in Friday night through Saturday night. 


The European model (ecmwf) continues to be the favored model and tends to be a bit 
more progressive for the Tuesday night/Wednesday wave. 


For Tuesday...cold front comes in early on Tuesday...but colder 
air is a little slower to come in on latest model runs and the 
stratus is as well. Bumped up temperatures considerably for this 
time period. For precipitation...the energy remains west and then 
south of the County Warning Area for the most part as the wave pivots. Very 
similar to previous runs. I did bump up chances a bit more in the 
south as the European model (ecmwf) has consistently painted quantitative precipitation forecast here. Most of the 
precipitation here should be rain with the exception of perhaps 
some snow in the far west at onset late Tuesday night. 


Cooled down Wednesday highs considerably. The colder air has a 
chance to move in and the upper pattern is quite troughy with cool 
850 mb temperatures. I went considerably below guidance here in 
the middle 40s for the most part. 


Should be a quick rebound for temperatures for Thursday as the 
progressive nature of the pattern continues and have bumped up 
highs. Cooled things off a bit from the previous forecast for 
Friday as cirrus looks like it could be an issue. 


Raised chances of precipitation for Saturday. Deep moisture and 
plenty of warm air advection drove chances up. Sky cover is 
probably not high enough here...so may need to be raised in future 
forecasts...as well as chances of precipitation if things keep 
looking the way they do. MUCAPES look even more promising off of 
the European model (ecmwf) for thunder in north central Kansas...and precipitation 
should shut off before cooler air works in late Saturday night. 


&& 


Gid watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Kansas...none. 


&& 


$$