178 
fxus61 kgyx 070655 
afdgyx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
255 am EDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will build 
southeast of our area by Wednesday. A weak warm front will move 
through the region Wednesday night followed by a cold front on Thursday. 
High pressure returns for Friday and Saturday and moves south of 
the region on Sunday. A back door cold front will move south 
across the region on Monday. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
will let the frost advisory in southern interior sections continue 
until 12z. A 1033 millibar high was centered along the 
Ontario/Quebec border at 03z. The high will build southeast today 
setting up a bit of a northerly gradient today. Surface winds will 
gust to around 20 miles per hour during the day but there should be plenty of 
sunshine. Models again pretty uniform on temperatures so went with 
a blend which gives US highs in the 50s in the mountains and lower 
to middle 60s in the south. && 


Short term /tonight/... 
the gradient will relax the winds will abate and under clear skies 
the temperatures will again drop to the 20s in the hills and 30s 
in southern portions. 
&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Monday/... 
high pressure crests over the region on Wednesday with mostly 
sunny skies and temperatures rebounding into the middle and upper 60s 
in the warmest locations. Expect some high cloudiness to spill 
into the region late in the day as a cold front approaches from 
the west. 


Shortwave shearing through southern Canada Wednesday night will 
swing a very weak cold front toward the region. Considering lack 
of forcing and upper support have scaled back on GFS probability of precipitation for the 
overnight and Thursday with best chance of precipitation confined 
to northern zones during the daylight hours of Thursday. 


Cold front finally pushes through the region Thursday night 
followed by another area of high pressure on Friday. This is 
somewhat of a change from last nights runs which brought a 
shortwave into the region Friday night and Saturday and swung this 
boundary north again as a warm front. 


Current runs keeping this system suppressed to the south with 
surface high in control for much of the weekend. Would expect a 
changeable forecast for the weekend and beyond as the situation 
evolves...but at this point not looking too bad for the northeast. 


Backdoor cold front approaches from the north late on Sunday 
bringing the only serious threat of precipitation to the region 
late Sunday night and Monday. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
short term...VFR. 


Long term...VFR Wednesday and Wednesday night. Some isolated MVFR 
ceilings possible on Thursday with frontal passage. VFR Friday through Sunday. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...no flags. Winds will gust to 25 knots...especially at 
C-man stations this morning. 


Long term...no problems noted. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...frost advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for mez018>022. 
New Hampshire...frost advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for nhz003>010-013. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$