898 
fxus61 kgyx 230623 
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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
123 am EST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Synopsis... 
as high pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes...an easterly 
flow will continue through tonight. A middle Atlantic low pressure 
system will remain offshore as it moves northeast Tuesday and 
Tuesday night. A weak ridge of high pressure moves across the 
region on Wednesday and slips offshore on Thanksgiving day. 
Another middle Atlantic low pressure system on Thursday night 
slowly moves through northern New England Friday and Saturday... 
then moves into the Maritimes on Sunday. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
low clouds increase over southern and central section thanks to 
an increasing onshore flow. Northern and mountain sections will see 
some Morning Sun before clouds begin their increase over those areas. 
Daytime highs still some 5 to 10 degrees above seasonable normals. 
Used blend of mav/met/current forecast parameters for temperatures 
and winds and blend of mav/current forecast for probability of precipitation. 


&& 


Short term /tonight/... 
continued onshore flow should yield increased low clouds with 
a chance of showers as well as some drizzle and fog...especially 
over southern/coastal sections. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/... 
tough call on timing of the moisture exiting our region from the 
offshore low. NAM holds onto clouds and plenty of moisture longer 
than the GFS Tuesday night. Split the difference...keeping chance 
probability of precipitation over southern portions of the forecast area during the 
evening...then ending any chance for precipitation. 


Held off on any probability of precipitation for next coastal system until Thursday. Both 
the GFS and Euro model suggests an inland track across New Hampshire with 
this one. This will keep the precipitation mainly in the liquid form until 
enought cold air can wrap into the system over the weekend. 


Strong easterly gradient forms by Friday...however...astronomical 
tides appear to be relatively low at this time. 


Yet another inland storm passes west of the region during the 
midweek (next week) hours. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/... 
short term...MVFR conditions due to clouds over southern/coastal 
sections today. VFR conditions over northern/mountain sections 
lowering to MVFR due to clouds later this afternoon. MVFR to IFR 
conditions area wide due to clouds and chance of showers as well 
as some fog/drizzle. 


Long term...plenty of low clouds with patchy fog through Tuesday 
evening...followed by clearing. Celings and visibilities lower for a 
substantial time with approach of next coastal system late in the week. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...conditions below Small Craft Advisory criteria today. Small Craft Advisory conditions due 
to seas tonight. 


Long term...Small Craft Advisory to continue into Tuesday. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST 
Tuesday for anz150>154. 


&& 


$$