650 
fxus64 kmaf 072316 
afdmaf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas 
616 PM CDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Discussion... 
see aviation discussion below. 


&& 


Aviation... 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to wane 
after sunset...but additional showers and storms could develop 
over Mexico and spread over the area late tonight. MVFR ceilings 
could develop along the Pecos River late tonight. MVFR ceilings 
could also affect taf sites in the Permian Basin and southeast New 
Mexico within any area of showers and storms that develop overnight. 
Will include prob30 groups most locations Monday afternoon as 
thunderstorms are expected to develop. Southeast to east winds 
will prevail areawide through the next 24 hours. 67 




&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 219 PM CDT sun Sep 7 2008/ 


Discussion... 
looks like an extended period of unsettled weather is in the offing. 
For tonight and Monday a couple of upper level impulses embedded 
with an upper level trough will translate from Mexico to the 
Southern Plains. The track of this system favors southeast New 
Mexico east to the Permian Basin for the best chance (40-50 percent) 
of showers and thunderstorms through tomorrow. By Monday night 
a strong cold front will push south into the area with a shear axis 
in place...will continue at least chance probability of precipitation most areas due to 
these features. Decent precipitation chances will continue Tuesday 
as a warm advection regime becomes established just above the front 
with tropical moisture increasing from Mexico and the Pacific as a 
southwesterly flow aloft becomes established between a West Coast 
trough and a upper level ridge along the western Gulf Coast. 
This flow looks like it will continue through much of the rest of 
the forecast period with copious amounts of clouds and opportunities 
for showers and thunderstorms. For now went mainly with a broad brush 
chance pop scenario in this pattern. Obviously probability of precipitation and quantitative precipitation forecast will need 
to be fine tuned as a better handle is made on the strength and 
track of individual shortwaves moving northeastward from Mexico 
in the upper level flow. With precipitable water values forecasted 
to range from 1.5 to 2 inches per gfs40 locally heavy rainfall/and 
or flash flooding will be a concern. Went generally a couple of 
degrees below the mexmaf on high temperatures in the extended due 
to the abundance of clouds and precipitation expected. 




&& 


Maf watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 


&& 


$$ 


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