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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
302 PM MDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Discussion... 
convection was slow to get started across the state this 
afternoon...but activity has started to pick up as of this writing 
with daytime heating. Elongated upper high still strecting from the 
eastern Pacific across northern nm...while upper level low is 
centered south of El Paso. Adding to the mix is a cold front that 
surged southward across the northeast plains earlier today...but has 
since slowed its southward progression. Currently this front lies 
from the sangre Delaware cristo mountains...to Clines Corners...to near 
Tucumcari. As this front moves through the gaps of the northern 
mountains...expect to see shower and thunderstorm activity pick up 
across the northwest mountains this evening. Other active areas this 
evening will be to the west and southwest of the higher terrain 
across west central and southwest New Mexico...and across the 
southeastern portions of the County Warning Area where moist southeasterly flow and 
lift resides thanks to the upper level low. Have generally gone 
above guidance for probability of precipitation in these areas tonight. Have also kept a 
slight chance of precipitation in the forecast overnight across the 
east as front lingers and stalls. Abq area should also experience 
an East Canyon wind this evening...as kcqc is already gusting to 
20kt from the east. 


As surface flow becomes more southeasterly on Friday...expect to see 
the east slopes of the Central Mountain chain become more 
active...and convection should start earlier than today...at least 
across the sangres. Otherwise...coverage of storms should be fairly 
similar to today. The southeast should remain active as weak 
disturbances round the upper low. 


Moisture surge still looks to be on tap over the weekend. Models not 
in as good of agreement with regards to coverage of precipitation 
over nm. Canadian and European model (ecmwf) are more bullish on precipitation coverage than 
the GFS and NAM...though latest 18z NAM appears wetter. Still think 
most active area will be across the west and southwest on 
Saturday...before transitioning eastward Sunday and Monday. Have 
adjusted probability of precipitation only slightly in this time frame...and will wait for 
more confidence in the timing of the trough...and when it picks up 
the upper low over old Mexico...before increasing probability of precipitation further. 


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&& 


Aviation... 
storms were slow to get going today but expecting similar coverage 
overall to yesterday. Thus the hit and miss variety. Short durations 
of MVFR conditions will be associated with the stronger activity. 
Some of the models are hinting at some low cloud development later 
tonight. Thus additional...longer duration MVFR conditions across 
the eastern plains. Most likely areas would be across the northeast 
and southeast after 09z. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 09z. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
overall...storms slow to fire up today versus the last couple of 
days but look for similar coverage overall. Pretty much the hit and 
miss variety although a few more storms will be found along the 
leading edge of a cold frontal boundary. Current boundary draped 
across the north central mountains and extending back into the east 
Central Plains. Lower dewpoints initially found behind this frontal 
boundary but looking for a moisture rich southeast flow to develop 
tonight and will effectively moisten the lower and middle levels of the 
atmosphere. This trend will continue into the weekend from southeast 
to northwest. Driest areas will remain across the northwest quarter 
of the state where humidity will drop into the teens through 
Friday. Then trend up over the weekend as moisture moves in from 
the south/southeast. There is heightened confidence that this 
moisture will be rung out in the form of showers/storms by an approaching 
deep trough and associated frontal passage Sunday/Monday. Timing of 
the system passage is still suspect however. 


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&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 60 91 62 87 / 10 10 20 20 
Gallup.......................... 52 87 54 82 / 10 10 20 30 
Grants.......................... 52 86 53 81 / 20 10 10 20 
Glenwood........................ 60 87 59 81 / 20 20 20 40 
Chama........................... 43 80 44 77 / 40 40 30 30 
Los Alamos...................... 54 80 52 79 / 30 20 30 30 
Red River....................... 39 70 40 69 / 30 40 30 30 
Taos............................ 50 82 52 79 / 20 30 30 20 
Santa Fe........................ 52 81 55 79 / 30 30 30 30 
Santa Fe Airport................ 55 84 56 81 / 20 20 20 20 
Espanola........................ 53 87 54 85 / 20 20 20 20 
Albuquerque heights............. 66 87 64 83 / 20 20 20 20 
Albuquerque valley.............. 63 89 61 85 / 20 20 20 20 
Albuquerque foothills........... 62 87 59 82 / 30 20 20 20 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 88 62 84 / 20 20 20 20 
Socorro......................... 61 86 60 84 / 20 20 20 40 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 79 51 76 / 30 20 20 30 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 81 50 77 / 30 20 20 30 
Carrizozo....................... 58 84 57 80 / 20 20 20 40 
Ruidoso......................... 53 75 51 69 / 30 30 30 30 
Raton........................... 52 82 52 82 / 20 30 30 20 
Las Vegas....................... 51 79 51 77 / 20 30 30 20 
Roy............................. 57 81 57 79 / 20 20 20 20 
Clayton......................... 59 84 60 84 / 10 30 30 10 
Santa Rosa...................... 59 87 58 85 / 20 20 20 20 
Tucumcari....................... 63 87 63 86 / 20 20 20 20 
Fort Sumner..................... 64 86 62 85 / 20 20 20 30 
Clovis.......................... 63 85 62 83 / 20 20 20 30 
Portales........................ 62 86 62 84 / 30 20 20 30 
Roswell......................... 66 86 64 83 / 30 20 20 30 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


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