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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
312 am MST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Discussion... 
the overall pattern through the week will be rather benign...however 
there are a few interesting weather features that will affect the 
area. The first to note is a moderate surface cold front currently 
pushing quickly southeast over northern Arizona/UT/and western Colorado. A 1030mb 
surface high is building behind this front with a 1004mb Lee trough 
over NE nm. Took a close look at 00z BUFKIT profiles and 00z local 
7.5km WRF/NAM/RUC guidance and decided to raise a Wind Advisory for 
the east slopes and Central High plains from 14z-22z today. Models 
develop a 55-65 knot 700mb mountain wave coincident with best 
surface pressure gradient and downward transport...particularly in 
the area between Raton...Las Vegas...Clines Corners...west Guadalupe... 
and NE Lincoln counties. 700mb temperatures this morning near 0c will be 
replaced with -6c to -8c throughout the day therefore falling temperatures 
are likely across many areas after 18z. A few flurries are also 
possible across the far northern mts and the Raton ridge today. 


Strong surface high pressure builds into the area tonight along with 
very dry air and cold temperatures. The upper level pattern will feature 
northwest flow over the western Continental U.S. Through about Wednesday before a weak 
upper level ridge builds directly over the state Thursday through 
early Saturday. Overnight temperature inversions will become a 
little stronger each night with the strongest occurring Thanksgiving 
day. Temperatures will start out around 5f below normal today then creep 
up to near normal by Thanksgiving day...which should really be a 
spectacular day under clear skies and light winds. 


The 00z model suite is coming into surprisingly good agreement on the 
development of a winter storm Sunday and Monday of next week...however 
its strength is still a big question. All eyes will be focused on 
this potential storm as the week progresses so stay tuned. Guyer 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions prevail all locations. No aviation weather hazards 
are expected for the next 24 hours. Gusty west to northwest winds 
will develop over and east of the central mountains by middle day today. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 22z. 05 


&& 


Fire weather... 
generally dry conditions to persist through the work week with 
variations in the wind pattern. Today...with strong northwest flow 
aloft associated with a fast moving disturbance to the north...winds 
over and east of the central mountains will reach 25 to 35 miles per hour 
today. Relative humidity will fall below 15 percent along and to the south of 
Interstate 40 and critical fire weather thresholds will likely be 
met for a few hours but red flag warning will not be issued at this 
time. Ventilation will be very good to excellent across the east 
and fair to good across the west. Colder air moves over the state 
with an enhanced boundary into the northeast and by tonight 
temperatures will be 8 to 15 degrees colder all zones. 


High pressure builds west of the state on Tuesday with northwest 
flow aloft over New Mexico. However...gradient relaxes as do 
surface winds. Ventilation will be poor with much weaker mixing and 
cooler temperatures. Temperatures increase all zones. 


The upper ridge builds over the Great Basin Wednesday and moves over 
New Mexico Thursday... maintaining a dry air mass and relatively 
light winds over New Mexico with a day to day warming trend 
continuing. Ventilation remains poor...overnight inversion to affect 
middle slope temperatures. 


Winds to increase Friday ahead of an upper level trough that could 
bring much colder temperatures and precipitation to New Mexico over 
the weekend. 05 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 44 13 44 15 / 0 0 0 0 
Dulce........................... 44 3 45 7 / 0 0 0 0 
Cuba............................ 42 6 43 8 / 0 0 0 0 
Gallup.......................... 46 5 47 6 / 0 0 0 0 
El Morro........................ 46 8 48 10 / 0 0 0 0 
Grants.......................... 48 6 48 7 / 0 0 0 0 
Quemado......................... 51 11 51 12 / 0 0 0 0 
Glenwood........................ 63 22 61 22 / 0 0 0 0 
Chama........................... 39 0 45 7 / 0 0 0 0 
Los Alamos...................... 44 10 46 17 / 0 0 0 0 
Pecos........................... 48 13 49 17 / 0 0 0 0 
Cerro/Questa.................... 43 2 44 4 / 0 0 0 0 
Red River....................... 38 1 37 8 / 5 0 0 0 
Angel Fire...................... 45 1 41 4 / 0 0 0 0 
Taos............................ 45 2 44 5 / 0 0 0 0 
Espanola........................ 52 14 49 12 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe........................ 48 12 45 16 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe Airport................ 50 14 46 17 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque foothills........... 51 21 49 23 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque heights............. 51 24 49 25 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque valley.............. 52 22 50 21 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 23 50 23 / 0 0 0 0 
Los Lunas....................... 58 18 49 15 / 0 0 0 0 
Rio Rancho...................... 51 21 50 21 / 0 0 0 0 
Socorro......................... 60 21 52 20 / 0 0 0 0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 47 17 48 19 / 0 0 0 0 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 14 50 15 / 0 0 0 0 
Clines Corners.................. 48 18 48 21 / 0 0 0 0 
Gran Quivira.................... 55 20 51 21 / 0 0 0 0 
Carrizozo....................... 59 25 54 24 / 0 0 0 0 
Ruidoso......................... 54 23 50 22 / 0 0 0 0 
Capulin......................... 43 12 45 16 / 5 0 0 0 
Raton........................... 47 12 49 13 / 5 0 0 0 
Las Vegas....................... 50 17 48 17 / 0 0 0 0 
Clayton......................... 50 23 52 24 / 0 0 0 0 
Roy............................. 52 18 50 21 / 0 0 0 0 
Conchas......................... 61 23 55 18 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Rosa...................... 61 22 54 21 / 0 0 0 0 
Tucumcari....................... 62 23 56 23 / 0 0 0 0 
Clovis.......................... 62 25 53 26 / 0 0 0 0 
Portales........................ 63 24 54 25 / 0 0 0 0 
Fort Sumner..................... 66 23 56 22 / 0 0 0 0 
Roswell......................... 70 28 58 27 / 0 0 0 0 
Picacho......................... 68 23 57 24 / 0 0 0 0 
Elk............................. 65 27 54 26 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Wind Advisory from 7 am this morning to 3 PM MST this afternoon for 
the following zones...nmz515-523-528-529-532-533-539. 


&& 


$$ 


Guyer/05 

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