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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
909 PM MDT Tuesday Aug 19 2008 


Update... 
minor changes to add low clouds and patchy fog from the east slopes 
eastward across the NE plains overnight. No other changes made. Zones 
out shortly. 


Guyer 


&& 


Previous discussion...302 PM MDT Tuesday Aug 19 2008... 
weak thermal trough noted this morning from SW Colorado into central Arizona 
cutting through a marginal north to S oriented middle and upper level 
moisture plume as evidenced by water vapor Sat loop. Scattered T 
storms developing near and S of this intersection making the Gila 
region by far the most active area of the forecast area so far today. 
That may well be the case through the rest of the afternoon...though 
areas along and just east of Central Mountain chain likely to at least 
reach second place as this area was firing up as of this writing. 
Far east plains and roughly northwest fifth of nm likely to be least active. 
Expecting a little less activity overall Wednesday in part due to a little 
more atmospheric drying...but thermal trough prognosticated to maintain 
itself and shift over to the vicinity of the Central Mountain chain so 
that area is likely to be the most active Wednesday afternoon. Thursday and Friday 
look to be even drier days area wide though will keep low probability of precipitation Thursday 
over the higher terrain and add a little more of the SW area Friday. 
Still some potential for backdoor front into east nm over the weekend 
to increase chances there a bit...though mitigating factor will be 
warming aloft. 


Aviation... 
isolated showers and thunderstorms will be found across a good 
portion of the forecast area except for the northwest third. Some 
MVFR conditions will be associated with this activity...especially 
east slopes and adjacent High Plains to the east of the Central 
Mountain chain but would be short duration due to storm movement. 
Areas of MVFR and limited IFR conditions will develop once again 
tonight along and east of the Central Mountain chain but overall 
coverage is expected to be a little less than what occurred last 
night. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 09z. 


Fire weather... 
drier air will gradually spread from northwest to southeast across 
the forecast area through the next few days. With cloud cover 
gradually decreasing each day...temperatures will also warm. 
Recycling of residual moisture within the atmosphere however...will 
still continue in the form of hit and miss showers and thunderstorms 
favoring the higher terrain. Driest conditions will remain across 
the northwest third while the highest humidity readings will be 
found across the eastern third. Wind flow will gradually increase 
and will generally be west/northwest during the afternoon period 
across a large portion of western and central areas. Strengths however 
arent expected to be real strong. Just some occasional breeziness 
during the peak heating period. 


As far as long range...it still appears that the weather models push 
a back door front into New Mexico by the weekend and higher moisture 
would subsequently push westward through the central mountains. 
Confidence is only moderate that this moisture push would be 
significant across western areas but confidence is high that a back 
door front will indeed affect the state sometime over the weekend. 
Upper high is depicted to build back over the state following the 
frontal push. This would essentially trap moisture underneath the 
high and allow recycling of this moisture in the form of showers and 
storms. 


&& 


Preliminary point temperatures/probability of precipitation update... 
Farmington...................... 58 92 56 93 / 0 5 10 5 
Gallup.......................... 52 86 53 87 / 5 10 10 5 
Grants.......................... 51 85 51 89 / 10 10 10 5 
Glenwood........................ 59 90 58 91 / 20 20 20 5 
Chama........................... 43 83 44 81 / 20 20 10 10 
Los Alamos...................... 51 82 51 87 / 20 20 10 10 
Red River....................... 37 76 38 77 / 30 30 10 10 
Taos............................ 46 82 46 87 / 30 20 10 10 
Santa Fe........................ 54 84 53 88 / 20 20 10 10 
Santa Fe Airport................ 55 86 55 89 / 20 20 10 5 
Espanola........................ 52 87 52 92 / 20 20 10 5 
Albuquerque heights............. 65 89 65 91 / 20 20 10 5 
Albuquerque valley.............. 60 90 60 92 / 20 20 10 5 
Albuquerque foothills........... 61 87 61 88 / 20 20 10 5 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 61 90 63 91 / 20 20 10 5 
Socorro......................... 58 89 60 91 / 20 20 20 5 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 49 82 49 80 / 20 20 10 10 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 85 53 88 / 30 20 20 10 
Carrizozo....................... 55 88 57 92 / 20 20 20 5 
Ruidoso......................... 50 79 52 81 / 30 30 20 10 
Raton........................... 48 82 49 87 / 20 20 20 10 
Las Vegas....................... 49 81 49 85 / 30 20 20 10 
Roy............................. 52 81 55 85 / 30 20 20 5 
Clayton......................... 54 80 58 89 / 10 10 10 5 
Santa Rosa...................... 55 85 57 93 / 30 20 20 5 
Tucumcari....................... 56 85 61 95 / 20 10 20 5 
Fort Sumner..................... 58 86 62 94 / 20 20 20 5 
Clovis.......................... 57 85 62 93 / 20 10 20 5 
Portales........................ 59 85 62 91 / 20 10 20 5 
Roswell......................... 62 89 65 97 / 20 20 20 5 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


Guyer