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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
222 PM MDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Discussion...high pressure continues to build across the region and 
will continue to do so the next couple of days. Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon and 
evening hours...primarily over higher terrain. For tonight...it 
appears that the best syncing of moisture and instability is over 
eastern portions of the state as isolated storms slide off the 
higher terrain and drift eastward. However...probability of precipitation will still be on 
the low side for this evening. 


More of the same appears to be on tap for Friday ahead of a weak 
back door front that is forecast to slide into northeast sections of 
the state on Saturday. We could see an upswing in activity across 
the northeast on Saturday as a result...but a widespread 
thunderstorm outbreak is not expected. Modest cooling can also be 
expected across these sections behind the front. 


High pressure will remain in control into the early portion of next 
week. It appears that the ridge may flatten somewhat as a low 
pressure system moves across the northern tier of states at that 
time. But the effects of this system on New Mexico appear very 
limited at this time. 


&& 


Aviation... 
much less shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected this 
afternoon...with activity remaining mainly along eastern slopes of 
the Central Mountain chain. Any activity will likely dissipate in 
the early evening hours with clouds quickly clearing thereafter. 
Only a few localized areas of MVFR conditions are expected under 
stronger storms with VFR conditions prevailing elsewhere. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
shower and storm coverage will be much less this afternoon with 
humidities declining below 15 percent in northwestern and central 
areas. Any storms will generally favor the eastern slopes of the 
Central Mountain chain for the remainder of today with a few storms 
also possible over the southwestern Gila WIlderness. Even less storm 
coverage is expected on Friday with warming temperatures and 
slightly lower humidities. A back door cold front is still expected 
to push into the northeastern plains on Saturday. This feature will 
likely aid in shower and thunderstorm development along the eastern 
slopes of the sangre Delaware cristos eastward into the northeastern 
plains. Models seem to have slowed down the progression of the 
front...and at this time it does not look like it will have enough 
momentum to push into central gaps and valleys by Saturday night or 
Sunday morning...especially with the upper level high centered over 
New Mexico at that time. This would keep things dry in areas west of 
the central mountains due to a lack of low level moisture and 
warm/dry sinking air aloft. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 56 94 58 94 / 5 5 5 5 
Gallup.......................... 49 89 49 89 / 5 5 5 5 
Grants.......................... 49 90 50 89 / 5 5 5 5 
Glenwood........................ 60 93 60 95 / 10 10 10 10 
Chama........................... 41 85 44 84 / 5 5 5 5 
Los Alamos...................... 53 88 53 87 / 5 5 5 5 
Red River....................... 42 79 41 77 / 10 10 10 20 
Taos............................ 46 89 48 88 / 5 5 5 10 
Santa Fe........................ 53 89 56 88 / 0 5 5 5 
Santa Fe Airport................ 55 91 57 90 / 0 5 5 5 
Espanola........................ 55 94 55 92 / 5 5 5 5 
Albuquerque heights............. 63 94 64 93 / 5 5 5 5 
Albuquerque valley.............. 60 94 59 93 / 5 0 0 5 
Albuquerque foothills........... 62 93 62 92 / 5 5 5 5 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 62 95 63 94 / 5 5 5 5 
Socorro......................... 59 94 58 94 / 5 5 5 5 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 52 86 51 84 / 5 5 5 5 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 90 53 89 / 5 5 5 5 
Carrizozo....................... 59 93 58 91 / 10 5 5 5 
Ruidoso......................... 54 84 51 82 / 10 10 10 10 
Raton........................... 49 90 51 86 / 10 5 5 10 
Las Vegas....................... 52 88 52 85 / 5 5 5 10 
Roy............................. 60 89 59 86 / 10 5 5 10 
Clayton......................... 61 93 61 89 / 10 5 5 10 
Santa Rosa...................... 61 96 60 91 / 10 0 0 5 
Tucumcari....................... 65 97 65 93 / 10 0 0 5 
Fort Sumner..................... 63 95 64 91 / 10 0 0 0 
Clovis.......................... 63 95 64 89 / 10 5 5 5 
Portales........................ 64 96 65 91 / 10 5 5 5 
Roswell......................... 66 99 67 93 / 10 0 0 0 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


03/52