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fxus64 kepz 151857 
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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
1257 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will cover the southwestern United States for the 
remainder of the week giving the region seasonably warm dry 
weather. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday and 
Tuesday as southerly winds ahead of a storm system transport 
moist air into the region. 


&& 


Discussion... 
no significant changes made to previous outlook as latest model 
output and data consistent with previous runs. Weak zonal flow 
aloft and high pressure at the surface will continue through 
Thursday while amplifying ridge moves across the Rocky Mountains 
Friday and Saturday. This pattern should bring dry weather with a 
subsidence and sunshine induced warming trend. Forecasted 
soundings also show strong middle level inversion or stable layer 
will persist next several days so rain chances will remain about 
none. 


Weak upper trough expected to move slowly into Southern 
California/Baja California later Sunday and progress slowly through Arizona 
on Monday. Backing/increasing southerly wind component ahead of 
system will transport increasing moisture while approach of the 
trough should also bring cooling aloft. Thus will mention 
convection for early next week. 


&& 


Aviation...valid 16/0000z-17/0000z 
VFR conditions through the period. See appropriate tafs for more 
details. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
fair weather in store for much of this week as zonal flow gives way 
into a ridge of high pressure toward the weekend. Winds will stay 
out of the east for the next couple days before shifting to the 
south. This wind shift will tap into some tropical moisture early 
next week with an upper level low pressure system moving across the 
region at approximately the same time. This will return a chance of 
precipitation to the Borderland early next week. 


&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 50 76 54 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Sierra Blanca Texas 49 68 48 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Las Cruces 47 74 51 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Alamogordo 45 72 49 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Cloudcroft 25 49 35 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Truth or Consequences 45 73 49 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Silver City 40 70 43 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Deming 47 74 50 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Lordsburg 47 80 49 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


05 rogash/ 23 Adair