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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
259 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008 


Discussion... 
in the wake the upper level system and associated surface cold front... 
mostly clear skies are generally noted across nm. Gusty northerly 
winds persist over the eastern plains on the order of 15-22kts while a 
batch of stratocumulus tries to clip the far southeast. Based on surface 
dewpoints...there is a lack of dry air advecting into the region. 
Skies will become clear by sunset...allowing for strong radiational 
cooling. With a relatively moist boundary layer in place...patchy 
fog/stratus will develop over the eastern plains. In addition...fog is 
likely within the Moreno Valley and the San Luis valleys in northern nm. 
Would not be surprised to see some thin radiation fog near the Rio 
Grande...similar to this morning within the Albuquerque metropolitan. No 
significant change is expected in low temperatures later tonight... 
though a few areas will remain above freezing unlike this morning. 
MOS continues to advertise 30-32f conditions tonight across the NE 
Highlands...similar to the past several mornings. It seems somewhat 
redundant to hoist another freeze warning for this area...thus will 
defer this headline for a morning more prone for a hard freeze... 
at or below 28f. 


No significant weather features to discuss for the remainder of the 
week outside of an upper level ridge traversing eastward across the 
Desert Southwest. Anticipate gradual warming to near/slightly above 
normal conditions. As the upper level ridge centers itself over nm 
on Saturday...700mb temperatures will range from 8-12c. By Sunday...a weak 
low currently west of Southern California will get a boot from an upstream wave 
and migrate into the southwestern United States. This feature could enhance 
the precipitation threat over The Four Corners area and be quickly chased by 
the approaching shortwave. This second feature could increase precipitation 
chances over western nm early next week. An upper level disturbance will 
invade the Pacific northwest on Monday. Significant spread is noted within 
the GFS ensemble height fields on how it will progress eastward... 
the strength and timing as well as the amount of available moisture. 
The general consensus is to advance the trough through the central 
rockies...although any deviation north/south will have an impact on 
precipitation/wind threats across the County warning forecast area. Dporter 


&& 


Aviation... 
won't be able to rule out some patchy MVFR conditions as well as 
even some localized IFR conditions later tonight. Most likely areas 
include the northern valleys as well as the eastern plains. A mixture of 
fog and low ceilings would result. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 09z. 50 


&& 


Fire weather... 
gradual warming and drying trend expected through the end of the 
work week. Dry conditions are expected to continue into the weekend 
although do have humidity levels slightly rising on sun as another 
storm system nears the area. Long range models seem to be more in 
agreement with the overall upper air pattern early next week although 
there is still disagreement on how much moisture will be involved. 


Ventilation still looks to be poor/fair most areas through Friday 
with an uptick in ventilation rates over the weekend as mixing 
becomes a bit better and the overall wind flow increases. 
Ventilation looks to be poorest on Friday with the upper ridge well 
entrenched over the state. 50 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 37 69 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 
Gallup.......................... 23 70 24 73 / 0 0 0 0 
Grants.......................... 25 70 27 73 / 0 0 0 0 
Glenwood........................ 37 76 37 78 / 0 0 0 0 
Chama........................... 23 64 25 67 / 0 0 0 0 
Los Alamos...................... 34 64 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 
Red River....................... 22 59 23 62 / 0 0 0 0 
Taos............................ 28 66 26 70 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe........................ 33 65 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe Airport................ 36 67 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 
Espanola........................ 32 71 34 75 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque heights............. 40 70 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque valley.............. 36 71 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque foothills........... 38 68 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 36 70 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 
Socorro......................... 34 72 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 32 63 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 34 68 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 
Carrizozo....................... 37 71 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 
Ruidoso......................... 32 66 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 
Raton........................... 31 68 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 
Las Vegas....................... 31 66 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 
Roy............................. 37 65 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 
Clayton......................... 38 67 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Rosa...................... 38 70 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 
Tucumcari....................... 39 71 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 
Fort Sumner..................... 37 70 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 
Clovis.......................... 41 69 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 
Portales........................ 39 70 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 
Roswell......................... 41 71 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


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