225 
fxus64 kepz 231104 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
358 am MST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Synopsis... 
dry pattern to continue through this week into the weekend. Above 
normal temperatures today will give way to slightly below normal 
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front descends from the 
north over the Borderland by late tonight. Temperatures will warm 
back to slightly above normal by Thursday into the weekend as 
surface winds gradually turn o the southwest. 


&& 


Discussion... 
main overall pattern to remain dry this entire week with mostly mild 
temperatures per model output...though some minor changes in models 
middle week. In the short term every thing still on course for for 
cooling down period. Main upper low now over southern Montana in 
broad trough extending down to New Mexico. WV imagery showing one 
weak short wave passed through the area Sunday evening with little 
effect. Another short wave is dropping into northern New Mexico this 
morning with a dissipating band of high clouds. Secondary vorticity 
center forming over southern Colorado this morning toward the 
Oklahoma Panhandle this evening will increase the cooler northwest 
flow over US and help drag a cold front down from the north. Front 
should be south of the County Warning Area by Tuesday morning...slicing about 10 
degrees off of today's highs...and below normal for Tuesday and 
Wednesday. Little if any increase in dew points/low level moisture 
so just can't see any reason for any clouds or probability of precipitation. Winds will 
increase tonight and gusty winds of up to 30 miles per hour are possible in 
north-south channeled terrain. 


Large broad ridge moves over the western U.S. In the wake of the 
exiting trough. This will allow surface winds to slowly veer back 
south and then to southwest and warm temperatures back to above 
normal by Thursday into the weekend. Models continue to subtly 
change middle week pattern as split flow develops under the West Coast 
ridge. GFS still shows southern branch developing upper low near the 
Baja California Wednesday/Thursday with decent amount of moisture...mostly middle 
and high level...moving over northern Mexico Thursday. Latest runs 
now just "nicking" the County Warning Area with the higher clouds Thursday night and 
Friday. In addition looks like GFS attempts to bring a front aloft 
from the next Pacific upper trough into the western U.S. And merge 
it with this high level moisture from the southern branch. Bottom 
line...just some partly cloudy skies likely Thursday night/Friday 
with this. 


Aforementioned incoming Pacific trough moves over the 
central/northern rockies by Sunday. Will have to watch this feature. 
GFS has been wildly fluctuating on this from run to run...but a few 
of the runs have developing strongly digging closed low over New 
Mexico with heavy snow potential. Due to the strong fluctuations 
with the models will not even bother tailoring the end of the 
forecast period to this scenario yet. 


&& 


Aviation...valid 23/12z-24/12z... 
expect VFR conditions expected through the period. Gusty 
north/northeast winds of 10 to 20 kts to develop after 06z...with 
stronger gusts to 30 kts possible through north-south channeled 
terrain. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
upper trough headed for the central rockies today will increase 
cooler northwest flow aloft and drop a backdoor cold front down to 
the area late this evening through Tuesday morning. Little moisture 
to work with but humidities will be higher Tuesday and Wednesday due 
to cooler temperatures. Highs both days will be about 5-10 degrees 
cooler than today. Dry pattern and returning near normal 
temperatures for the remainder of the week after Wednesday. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 70 39 61 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Sierra Blanca Texas 67 33 59 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Las Cruces 69 36 60 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Alamogordo 68 33 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Cloudcroft 53 21 46 16 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Truth or Consequences 67 32 58 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Silver City 63 30 56 24 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Deming 69 35 60 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Lordsburg 70 34 61 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


17 Hefner