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afdabq 


Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
303 PM MST Tuesday Dec 2 2008 


Discussion... 
high clouds have been streaming across the state today...and as 
such...have limited mixing and high temperatures just a bit. So 
far...winds have been just below advisory criteria at observation 
sites. Nonetheless... will keep advisory intact through 5 PM...as 
many areas have been only one knot shy. Appears as though Roswell 
will break their record high temperature for today...as they have 
already reached 81 degrees. Suspect a few more sites will near or 
set records before the afternoon is over. Otherwise...red flag 
warning appears to be in good shape...and that will continue through 
6 PM. 


Shortwave trough will quickly move across the area tonight and 
Wednesday. 12z model runs and 15z sref still not bullish on quantitative precipitation forecast for 
the tonight period. Since this is a quick moving system...and 
dewpoints have been dropping this afternoon...not completely 
surprised on the lack of quantitative precipitation forecast. Have scaled back probability of precipitation a bit more... 
but still remain above guidance. The associated cold front will 
plunge southward across the eastern plains early Wednesday 
morning. Will likely see some strong winds with the front near the 
Texas border. The trough axis will still be located across 
central nm at this time and since the best low level forcing will be along 
the front...could see a few rain and snow showers develop across 
the eastern plains. Have stuck with slight chance probability of precipitation...but this 
will need to be monitored as latest 18z NAM paints more quantitative precipitation forecast over 
the eastern plains. Aside from the possible shower activity...the 
bigger story will likely be The Drop in temperatures. Temperatures will 
drop on the order of 25 degrees across the east...with 10 degree 
drops noted across the west from todays readings. Cool 
temperatures will stick around on Thursday...before a gradual 
warming trend begins Friday through the weekend. Models still 
differ with regards to the ejection of the upper low that will be 
churning over the Pacific early next week. Ecwmf and Canadian 
bring a trough across the state late sun and early Monday...while 
the GFS holds it back until middle week. Will leave extended grids as 
is and wait for more consistency. 


34 


&& 


Aviation... 
strong winds will be the main concern through the next 12 to 18 
hours. Strong winds aloft will continue to induce mountain waves off the 
Central Mountain chain. Gust spread potential looks to be 
significant with 13 to 20 kts possible. Main focus for the strongest 
winds will be found along and east of the Central Mountain chain through 
early this even then lessen after that. Localized strong winds will 
remain however along the Central Mountain chain overnight. Gusty winds 
associated with a cold frontal passage will also occur Wednesday 
morning. It appears that ceilings will be high enough not too warrant 
MVFR in any of the terminal forecasts. Isolated snow showers which 
would lower ceilings to MVFR could occur later tonight with the cold 
frontal passage. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 10z. 50 


&& 


Fire weather... 
critical fire weather conditions so far have been marginal. Winds 
have been hovering around 1 to 3 miles per hour shy of criteria although 
humidity readings have fallen into the low/middle teens across the east 
Central Plains. Higher...mountain wave induced cloud cover and a middle 
level thermal inversion has limited some of the mixing although 
latest infrared satellite trends show that the high clouds should lessen 
somewhat across the east Central Plains. With all of that being 
said...will continue the red flag warning until event expiration 
time of 6 PM. 


Cold front attached to a fast moving storm system over the Great 
Basin ND central rockies will swing across the state overnight. 
Cooler air will filter in behind the frontal passage and provide 10 
to 30 degrees of cooling as compared to todays readings. The most 
pronounced cooling will be found across the eastern plains where 
temperatures are near records today. This cooling effect will 
result in higher humidity readings overall on Wednesday. Some 
lighter snow showers will also be possible with the system passage 
but remain relegated across northern and eastern areas. 


Another clipper type wave will swing across the southern rockies 
Thursday night into Friday although this system looks to be drier 
than the upcoming one. 


Model to model run consistency Sunday through Tuesday has been a 
little less to be desired but the latest long range models are 
trending more towards a wetter solution Sunday night through 
Tuesday. Stayed the course as far as the extended forecast GOES and 
hedged with 30 percent or less right now. This could be updated as time 
GOES on. 


50 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 30 50 23 50 / 10 0 0 0 
Gallup.......................... 22 52 14 53 / 5 0 0 0 
Grants.......................... 24 53 13 55 / 0 0 0 0 
Glenwood........................ 32 64 26 62 / 0 0 0 0 
Chama........................... 15 46 8 45 / 20 5 0 0 
Los Alamos...................... 27 49 21 49 / 10 0 0 0 
Red River....................... 15 41 7 40 / 20 10 0 0 
Taos............................ 22 48 13 47 / 10 5 0 0 
Santa Fe........................ 30 49 23 49 / 10 0 0 0 
Santa Fe Airport................ 31 51 23 51 / 5 0 0 0 
Espanola........................ 27 53 19 53 / 5 5 0 0 
Albuquerque heights............. 38 57 31 54 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque valley.............. 33 58 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque foothills........... 36 56 30 53 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 34 57 25 54 / 0 0 0 0 
Socorro......................... 33 61 24 59 / 0 0 0 0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 29 54 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 30 53 19 51 / 5 0 0 0 
Carrizozo....................... 36 58 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 
Ruidoso......................... 38 54 28 53 / 0 0 0 0 
Raton........................... 29 46 19 40 / 20 20 0 0 
Las Vegas....................... 31 48 21 43 / 10 10 0 0 
Roy............................. 34 46 22 38 / 10 20 0 0 
Clayton......................... 32 42 20 37 / 10 20 0 0 
Santa Rosa...................... 39 53 24 47 / 0 10 0 0 
Tucumcari....................... 39 47 24 46 / 5 20 0 0 
Fort Sumner..................... 37 53 24 48 / 0 10 0 0 
Clovis.......................... 37 50 24 44 / 0 20 0 0 
Portales........................ 38 50 23 45 / 0 10 0 0 
Roswell......................... 37 59 29 51 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


34/50 

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