559 
fxus65 klkn 072059 
afdlkn 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Elko Nevada 
159 PM PDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis...high pressure will promote warm temperatures on Monday. 
Afternoon thunderstorms are a possibility Monday afternoon over 
White Pine County. An approaching cold front on Tuesday will bring a 
slight chance of thunderstorms to east central Nevada...along with 
breezy conditions. Temperatures will turn somewhat cooler for the 
remainder of the week. && 


Short term...tonight through Tuesday. Current WV imagery shows signs 
of a weak upper low developing over nocal this afternoon. Models have 
this feature hanging out over nocal through Tuesday morning before a 
second and slightly stronger upper low dives southward into nocal/northwest 
Nevada late Tuesday. To the east of these features...a weak ridge of 
high pressure develops over Nevada for Monday and Tuesday. Upper flow 
underneath the ridge becomes just southerly enough to pull little 
monsoon moisture northward into east-central Nevada both Monday and 
Tuesday afternoon. This moisture coupled with just enough 
instability (li/S 0 to -1) and low level convergence may be enough to 
spark isolated thunderstorms over this area. Therefore...have 
continued with slight chance probability of precipitation east central Nevada both 
afternoons/evenings. Otherwise...dry conditions will prevail across 
the remainder of the County Warning Area. With a weak cold front approaching the 
region Tuesday afternoon...will see some breezy conditions 
develop. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period. McGee 


Long term...Tuesday night through next Sunday. Models in agreement 
with trough over County Warning Area through Thursday...but models still have 
significant differences in location of center of cutoff low. By 
Thursday models having hard time in agreement of placement and 
timing of cutoff low. Airmass becomes unstable over the east central 
Nevada through Thursday for isolated afternoon thunderstorms each day. Models in 
agreement with pushing trough east of the area Saturday for drying and 
cooling trend. Have kept northeastern Nevada mainly dry through the 
period as lowest Li southern zones and have this area beginning to 
have stronger surface inversions. Remainder of County Warning Area under a dry and 
stable airmass. Have left probability of precipitation low during the long term period as 
moisture limited. Harmer 
&& 


Aviation...dry conditions through Monday with winds generally light. 
Harmer && 


Fire weather...southerly flow aloft will develop over central Nevada 
Monday afternoon...allowing a little monsoon moisture to return. 
Could be a couple of dry thunderstorms that develop over White Pine 
and NE Nye County in the afternoon. A better chance of 
thunderstorms will come on Tuesday afternoon ahead of an 
approaching cold front. Still not expecting lal values to be any 
higher than 2 on Tuesday...but coverage of any thunderstorms will 
be a little more than Monday afternoon. Breezy conditions are also 
expected to develop ahead of the cold front Tuesday afternoon... 
especially central Nevada. However...do not think breezy conditions will 
be widespread enough to warrant red flag conditions at this time. 
Gusts should generally be in the 25 to 30 miles per hour range. Isolated 
thunderstorms will linger into Thursday across east-central Nevada. 
McGee && 


Lkn watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


$$