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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Elko Nevada 
318 am PST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Synopsis...high pressure will build over the region through 
Thanksgiving day providing mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. 
Temperatures will be a little below normal through Tuesday 
morning...however expect above normal temperatures by middle week. 
The threat of light snow showers returns to northern Nevada next 
Friday. && 


Short term...today through Wednesday. Cool northwesterly flow 
aloft over the region today as high pressure begins to build in 
from the west. Low temperatures will be below normal under the 
northwesterly flow across northern and portions of central Nevada 
for the next couple of mornings. Undercut guidance for low 
temperatures across much of northern Elko County due to the recent 
snowfall and clearing skies which will help the radiative cooling 
process. 


Afternoon high temperatures will increase slightly each day 
through Wednesday as high pressure continues to build over the 
Great Basin...with light winds and dry conditions. 


Long term...Wednesday night through Sunday. The period begins with 
a strong ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin. By Friday a 
short wave will be approaching the region. Disagreements continue 
between the models with regards to the strength of this system and 
the models are also flip-flopping among themselves. The last couple 
of days the Euro model was the strongest while the GFS kept most 
energy to our north. The latest model runs have reversed this with 
the GFS now the deepest and the Euro the furthest north. The Euro 
solution would only bring a slight chance of showers to the northern 
border area while the GFS solution would bring a threat of showers 
as far south as central Nevada. Needless to say very little confidence in 
the forecast for this system so did not make any changes to the current 
forecast which has a slight chance of showers over portions of northern Nevada 
Friday and Saturday. && 


Aviation...ridge of high pressure will build over northern and central Nevada 
today for mostly clear skies. && 


Lkn watches/warnings/advisories...none. && 


$$ 


96/91/91