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fxus65 klkn 022248 
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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Elko Nevada 
248 PM PST Tuesday Dec 2 2008 


Synopsis...a cold front will quickly move east of Nevada tonight 
with high pressure returning Wednesday. Another weak system in northerly 
flow will brush across northern Nevada late Thursday...then high 
pressure builds into Nevada Friday and this weekend. 
&& 


Short term...tonight through Friday...vorticity maximum rapidly moving southeast 
through the NE corner of Nevada this evening. Gusty northwest winds following 
the shortwave should decrease overnight as low levels decouple from 
upper atmosphere. Will let Wind Advisory continue for NE zones until 
8 PM PST and allow other zones advisory to expire at 5 PM. Snow 
showers should end quickly this evening in the NE. Brief shortwave 
ridge slides over Nevada Wednesday before next shortwave trough in northerly flow 
drops across northern Nevada Thursday. Models differ on strength of this feature 
and prefer srf which takes The Middle Ground. European model (ecmwf) is weakest and 
GFS strongest with this shortwave. Split flow should break this shortwave 
apart as it digs into Nevada. Main impact will be flurries and isolated 
snow showers NE Nevada and colder temperatures across the County warning forecast area. Ridge 
rebuilds across Nevada Friday for slightly warmer daytime temperatures. 
Nights will remain seasonably chilly. 


Long term...Friday night through next Tuesday. Upper low will be 
situated off the Southern California coast at the beginning of the 
long term period. Medium range models are split on how to handle 
this feature with the Canadian and European model (ecmwf) brining the low across the 
southwest U.S. Sunday/Monday as an open trough. 12z operational GFS 
and most GFS ensemble members show upper low remaining offshore 
through the start of next week. Since models still split for much of 
long term period...did not make too many changes. Kept forecast dry 
through Sunday...then allowed some showers across northern Nevada Monday 
and Tuesday as northern branch of the jet stream becomes a little 
more active. 
&& 


Aviation...breezy to winds conditions will continues across 
northern and central Nevada through 02z this evening before diminishing. 
With upper trough exiting the region this evening and high pressure 
starting to build in...expecting VFR conditions through Wednesday. 
&& 


Lkn watches/warnings/advisories... 
Wind Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for nvz013-031-035- 
037. 


Wind Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening for nvz032>034. 


&& 


$$ 


85/99/99