463 
fxus61 kbgm 030155 
afdbgm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
855 PM EST Tuesday Dec 2 2008 


Synopsis... 
above normal temperatures can be expected on Wednesday with highs 
into the 40s. This will occur ahead of the next storm system... 
which will spread rain and snow into the area late Wednesday night 
into Thursday. Behind the cold front much colder air and lake 
effect snows can be expected through the end of the week...with 
significant snow accumulations possible north of the New York 
thruway. 


&& 


Near term /rest of tonight/... 
minor changes to forecast update this evening...mainly to fiddle with 
fluctuations in lower cloud decks moving in and out of the region. 
Witih high pressure building in though...it still appears that the 
model trends which continue to suggest mixing out of 900-850 mb 
moisture through the night still look good...although with clouds 
over western New York/northwest PA still lifting NE toward the region...the trends 
for significant clear holes will be well after midnight. Overnight 
temperatures in the middle 20s also seem on track...esply with the developing 
clearing. 


&& 


Short term /Wednesday through Friday/... 
Wednesday will be warmest of the week under SW flow on backside of 
hipres and 800 mb temperatures warming to 0c to +2c. WV currently located 
across British Columbia/ab border in western Canada will dive into northern plains tonight 
and help deepen surface low over Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will 
spread next rnd of precipitation into western zones by 06z Thursday. GFS 
slightly quicker with progression of precipitation and will follow for 
details as it has been more reasonable with past several systems 
than the NAM has. BUFKIT profiles indicate a fairly isothermal 
layer by the time precipitation starts. Thus...will continue mention of 
rain or snow for the County Warning Area on Thursday morning. Colder air should hang back 
until after 18z when 800 mb cold air advection begins to mv in. Have used mav guidance 
for hrly temperatures on Thursday as temperatures will likely fall drg the afternoon 
and transition rain over to all snow by evening. 


Behind system...lake effect snows expected across northern half of County Warning Area. 
Flow looks to be from 270-280 degrees with fairly persistent 
snowband north of the New York thruway. While still too early yet 
for a watch...current indications are for 4-8 inches over Tug Hill. 
Will continue to highlight potential in severe weather potential statement with les watch 
possible from later shifts. Lake snows will continue through the day 
Friday before shifting to the north. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
eastern trough with cold temperatures expected to remain through the weekend 
before upper ridge and surface high build eastward early next week 
with modifying trend. Lake effect snow should wind down early in 
the period, before another chance of light synoptic snow with weak 
surface low approaching from the Great Lakes later Saturday into 
Sunday. Some lake effect will follow this system, before drying 
and high pressure arrive early next week. 


&& 


Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
VFR no sig weather next 24 hours. Lower cloud decks are expected to 
slowly become scattered from S-north by 10z-12z...then scattered-broken cirrus. 


Winds mainly southwesterly around 5 kts tonight...5-10 kts Wednesday. 


Outlook... 


Wednesday night...becmg MVFR late with areas IFR by morning in snow showers. 


Thursday...MVFR/IFR with shsn in morning...improving VFR during PM. Chance Lake 
effect snow showers impacting syr-rme with IFR late in day. 


Thursday ngt/Fri...VFR. Chance localized MVFR/IFR in lake effect snow 
showers...especially rme and syr. 


Saturday...MVFR/IFR. Chance snow showers later in the day. 


Sunday...MVFR. Chance snow showers. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...pvn 
near term...jab 
short term...pvn 
long term...jml 
aviation...jab