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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Buffalo New York 
1012 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008 


Synopsis... 
a cold front stretching from the central Great Lakes to the Ohio 
Valley will move east across our region and bring a period of rain 
overnight into Thursday morning. An expansive area of high pressure 
will then build across the lakes from Thursday night through 
Sunday...resulting in generally fair weather with seasonably 
cool temperatures. 


&& 


Near term /through Thursday/... 
1000 PM update...showers have streaked eastward as far east as the 
Genesee Valley this evening but they remain generally brief and 
scattered. One batch of heavier showers along the Lake Erie shore 
will scoot across southern Erie/Wyo counties next couple hours. 


Main batch of rain will arrive after midnight...associated with 
good low level jet and middle level short wave...40 kts at 4k 
feet...with all areas experiencing a good 3 to 6 hour period of 
occasionally soaking rain. Still some possibility of 
thunder...although it is remote...will maintain slight chance in grids. 
Quantitative precipitation forecast looks to average 0.5 inch...with isolated amts up to an inch. 
We've been very dry as of late...no rain in a week...so no Hydro 
problems foreseen. 


One more item to watch...the temperatures. Erie jumped to 70 past hour 
and we should rise well into 60s briefly along Lake Erie shore up to 
buf area for an hour or two ahead of the front. Tweaked grids to 
account for this. 


Frontal boundary will push across the area during the morning 
hours Thursday with a rapid drying...at least at middle and upper 
levels occurring immediately behind the front. Though there still 
may be so lingering activity during the morning hours...it looks 
as if all the rain will be done across the area by the afternoon. 
Cloudiness will likely linger into the early afternoon...before a 
gradual clearing takes place from northwest to southeast during 
the course of the afternoon. 


Temperatures will likely hold in the 50s during the day Thursday 
as modest cold air advection regime sets up behind the frontal 
boundary. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday night through Saturday/... 
this period is fairly straight forward. A surface ridge stretching 
from Minnesota to Texas at the beginning of the period will 
translate slowly eastward to New England and the Middle Atlantic States 
by Saturday night. This should result in generally fair weather. 
During the same timeframe the upper air pattern will begin zonal but 
a trough is expected to dig across the lower lakes Friday night and 
move to New England Saturday. This feature will be moisture starved 
however so probability of precipitation will remain none even during this period. 


850 mb temperatures will remain below zero c throughout which will 
result in highs on Friday and Saturday below normal...generally in 
the low to middle 50s. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... 
the 12z run of the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in pretty close agreement. They 
continue to ease the surface high off the middle Atlantic coast while 
an upper trough digs in the strong westerlies across southern Canada 
near the upper Great Lakes. As the trough digs more and translates 
eastward a cold front is expected to push through our County Warning Area Monday or 
Monday evening. The GFS is is about 12 hours faster than the European model (ecmwf). 
With either. We will go closer to GFS solution at this time and 
bring chance probability of precipitation in Sunday night and Monday. We will also keep in a 
lingering chance Monday night for the eastern zones. 


Strong ridging at the surface and aloft is expected Tuesday and 
Wednesday with the vast majority of the GFS ensemble members in 
agreement and also the European model (ecmwf). We are fairly confident with fair 
weather both of those days. Still cool in the 50s Tuesday and 
probably warming to around 60 by Wednesday. 


&& 


Aviation /02z Thursday through Monday/... 
VFR flight conditions will deteriorate into IFR and MVFR overnight as 
a storm system rides northeastward along a frontal boundary. 


Ceilings will lower into low IFR and LIFR with the rain and 
visibilities will drop to IFR then to improve to MVFR as the rain 
exits though. 


Winds tonight will increase in speed from southwest just ahead of 
the surface wave. Winds will likely be strongest across the kbuf...and 
kiag taf sites. As this storm system drags a cold front across the 
region tomorrow morning winds will veer to the northwest. 
This will occur around 10z to 12z in the west and several hours 
later in the east. Moisture will slowly erode in the lower levels 
behind the cold front and thus ceilings will take some extra time to 
lift back into the VFR flight category. Expect MVFR flight ceilings 
through much of the morning and into the early afternoon. 




Outlook... 
Friday...generally VFR with areas of IFR/MVFR in morning valley 
fog. 
Saturday through Monday...VFR. 


&& 


Marine... 
no flags are expected through the end of the week. 


Moderate southwesterlies ahead of the front just after midnight will 
become fresh northwesterlies late tonight and Thursday morning 
before weakening to gentle breezes late in the day through 
Thursday night. While waves may climb to near 4 feet for a short 
time late tonight and Thursday morning...small craft advisories 
are not expected. 


4 footers may also be experienced Thursday night along the South 
Shore of Lake Ontario as northwesterlies shift to northeasterlies. 


&& 


Buf watches/warnings/advisories... 
New York...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...Sage 
near term...sfm/tma 
short term...Sage 
long term...Sage 
aviation...Thomas/tma 
marine...Sage