173 
fxus61 kbgm 231141 
afdbgm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
641 am EST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Synopsis... 
low pressure will track up the East Coast into Tuesday. Ahead of 
this storm rain will spread into northeast Pennsylvania by 
this evening...with the rest of the area seeing rain Monday night 
into Tuesday. We will see a brief break in the precipitation early 
Wednesday before our weather turns unsettled again through the end 
of the week. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
as of 307 am...low clouds have moved back into the Catskills and 
northern Pennsylvania per the latest surface observation plot/11-3.9 
micron satellite loop. The return flow around an area of high 
pressure across southeast Quebec will continue to move this stratus layer 
north and west through daybreak. Overall confidence on where this 
cloud deck ends up is rather low given that model guidance is not 
handling it all that well. In addition a moist boundary layer...as 
evident by a hazy appearance outside and a thick frost already 
forming...will allow areas of fog to form. Best guess at this 
point is the stratus layer will move as far west as a line from 
Elmira to Binghamton to Norwich by daybreak. Northwest of this 
line skies will generally be clear outside of patchy fog. 


The cloud forecast will continue to be tough today with the 
stratus in place at daybreak....along with high and middle level clouds 
streaming in from the south as an area of low pressure rides up 
the coast. The cloud shield may erode a bit on the western edges 
by midday due to boundary layer mixing but then clouds will 
increase from south to north as moisture lifts northward through 
PA. Best shot at appreciable amounts of sun today will occur across The 
Finger lakes up through the western Mohawk Valley. Here temperatures will 
climb into the lower 50s with upper 40s farther south due to the 
cloud cover. 


High pressure to our northeast will suppress the main area of rain 
across the middle-Atlantic to our south until tonight. However...the 
return flow around that high may try to move in a few showers off 
the Atlantic Ocean toward dusk across the Poconos and 
Catskills. Even here precipitation chances are rather low. Main threat 
for rain still looks to be later tonight as the high finally 
retreats enough to the east to allow the middle-Atlantic moisture to 
move northward. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts are light with only a few hundredths 
for most...but up to two tenths across the far south and east. 


&& 


Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/... 
as of 307 am...rain early in the day will begin to taper off and move 
east by afternoon as low pressure moves up the coast and farther 
away from the area. A general lull in precipitation is expected 
late Tuesday into the first half of Wednesday as the area will be 
in between storm systems. Wednesday into Wednesday night a new 
area of low pressure will track well to our west up through the 
upper Great Lakes. Thickness values well too warm to support 
anything but rain. Looks like all the fun is in the extended 
forecast today. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Sunday/... 
models continue to show a strong upper level low pressure system 
over the middle west for the beginning of the period. The surface low 
is set up over the Great Lakes region. This surface low will eject to 
the northeast and dissipate. As it does...it will spread light 
precipitation across western New York. A few of these showers may 
also develop over the County Warning Area. 


Another surface low will begin to develop along the Carolina coast 
Thursday night along with a sister surface low that tracks inland 
across western New York. This will be the more significant system in 
the forecast. This system quickly moves north along the coast. 
Models differ somewhat on the exact track. How the models continue 
to develop this system will be very interesting over the next 
several days. A little further east and a little less of a sister 
low and this could become a strong coastal storm. The temperatures ahead 
of the system will be warm enough to be rain. However...as Friday 
progresses...colder temperatures move in and the precipitation should change 
over to snow. 1000-500 thickness drop on the backside of the low 
to below 540dm and possibly to around 530dm on Saturday. The issue 
will be the exact track. The GFS has the surface low tracking across 
Vermont and New Hampshire. This does not seem to be a typical track. 
The European model (ecmwf) has the low staying along the coast all the way up past 
Nova Scotia. This would seem more likely. Will lean more towards 
this track for now. With this...winds will be brisk this 
weekend..with what looks to be sustained winds of around 20 miles per hour. 
It is too early to predict precipitation amounts at this time as 
models continue to vary run to run on intensity and location of 
the precipitation. 


As the low progresses northeastward...the surface flow becomes more 
favorable for lake enhanced snow. 850 mb temperatures drop to around -4 or -5 c 
by Saturday afternoon. This should help to enhance the wrap around 
precipitation from the low pressure system. The low does quickly move out 
and the surface flow dies down. However...the flow aloft will continue 
from the northwest and lake effect snows may continue through the weekend. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/... 
a somewhat tricky forecast for this morning as low clouds are 
slowly moving across the region from the southeast to the 
northwest. Kavp has had MVFR ceilings all night and kbgm has now 
had ceilings move in that are also MVFR. They have begun bouncing 
between clear and MVFR and will likely do so through middle morning. The 
northern taf sites have been clear. This has allowed kelm to 
become fogged in with dense freezing fog this morning. This will 
likely continue for a few hours after sunrise. Ksyr and krme 
have been VFR all night and are expected to remain that way 
through the early afternoon. Several other non taf airports have 
also reported some dense fog across the region...so localized 
dense fog is a real possibility through the morning hours. Also 
low ceilings will continue to spread slowly across the region this 
morning. Confidence is low as to how far this stratus layer will 
move. The models are not picking up on it at all...and daybreak 
should begin to dissipate it...at least stop its progression and 
allow it to lift some. 


Conditions will drop this evening however across all taf sites as 
a trough of low pressure moves across the Middle Atlantic States. 
There will be some scattered light showers associated with this 
system and ceilings will once again drop to MVFR. There are also 
some indications in the models that visibility will also be 
affected as mist and/or fog form in conjunction with the 
precipitation. 


Outlook... 


Sun ngt/Monday...VFR. 
Monday ngt/Tuesday...MVFR possible in showers. 
Tuesday night through Wednesday night...VFR. 
Thursday...MVFR in showers. 


&& 


Climate... 
with the potential for snow late this week/into the weekend it may 
come just in time to keep one of our climate locations from 
breaking an all time record. Syracuse, New York has not seen an inch or more 
of snow since February 24th of last winter. Through today (11/23) that 
is a total of 271 days without seeing an inch or greater of 
snowfall. This is good enough for 3rd place all time. Given our 
current forecast we should make it through Thanksgiving without 
seeing an inch of snow. If the forecast verifies that would move 
US into a tie for 2nd. In order to break the record of 276 days 
set back in 1946...we would need to get through this Sunday 
(11/29) without seeing an inch or more of snow at the Airport. 


* This data was accessed from the threadex database using data 
from the Syracuse area...not just the Airport. These records go 
back to 1902. 


Below is a list of the top 5 all time longest stretches without 
seeing an inch or more of snow for Syracuse. 


Top 5 


1) 1946 276 days (feb 27th - Dec 1st) 
2) 1998 274 days (mar 22nd - Dec 22nd) 
3) 2009 271 days (through 11/23) 
4) 1978 265 days (mar 6 - Nov 27) 
5) 1932/1941 263 days (mar 21st - Dec 10th) 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...heden 
near term...heden 
short term...heden 
long term... 
aviation... 
climate... 

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